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Algeria and Libya Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

Algeria and Libya Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - new country guide report published

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2014-02-19 07:51:03 - Algeria and Libya Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on

We expect real GDP growth in Algeria to accelerate in 2013 and private consumption to grow strongly in the near term, while the net export position is likely to deteriorate on the back of higher imports.

Moreover, planned fiscal consolidation is likely to come up short of the government´s target.

An increasing import bill will cause the current account surplus to narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2013 and 1.3% in 2014, from 8.1% of GDP in 2012.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our forecast for real GDP growth in Algeria, which we forecast to come in at 3.5% in 2013 and 4.8% in 2014 respectively, from our previous forecasts of 3.2% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. The economy will expand



below potential over the medium term, and we forecast real GDP growth averaging 3.4% over the 2013-2017 period.

Key Risk To Outlook

As a result of the January attack on a gas facility in eastern Algeria by hard-line Islamist militants, which resulted in at least 48 deaths, we have lowered our short-term political risk rating for Algeria to 61.2 from 63.3. The security situation has remained relatively stable since the attacks.

Risks that 2013 could see the emergence of large-scale political unrest in Algeria are low, even as the country shares similar political, economic and social characteristics as other countries that experienced revolutions during the Arab Spring.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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