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Angola Business Forecast Report Q1 2014

Angola GDP growth forecast to be 7.3% in 2014

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2014-01-09 09:15:02 - Angola Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - a new country guide report on

We expect economic growth to pick-up over the coming quarters as the government forges ahead with a major public investment programme and oil production is bolstered by new capacity coming on stream. We predict that real GDP growth will come in at 7.3% in 2014, averaging 7.4% annually between 2014 and 2018.

Political tensions have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to remain heightened over the near term as frustration continues to mount at long-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and his ruling MPLA party.

Inflation will remain steady over the course of 2014 – hovering within the 8.0%-9.5% range -anchored by a combination of currency stability and government energy subsidies. Any sustained fall below 8.0% remains unlikely over the



near term given structural bottlenecks.

We believe that government spending – though likely to come in below targeted levels due to capital budget execution issues – will stay elevated. Growth in oil revenues, though staying positive, will not match spending and we predict successive fiscal shortfalls through to 2017.

Having previously forecast a budget shortfall equal to 2.7% of GDP in 2013, we now estimate that the deficit is likely to come in at around 2.1% of GDP. The main reason for the revision is lower than projected expenditure.

Drought, project delays and reduced oil output have prompted us to revise down our 2013 real GDP growth estimates to 5.8% from 7.1% previously.

Our forecasts, as always, remain subject to the myriad uncertainties associated with oil production and exploration in Angola, along with volatility in global oil prices.

Given that our forecasts only include planned oil projects, the upside potential posed by the country´s vast and as yet unexploited sub-salt reserves pose a major upside risk to our forecasts over the medium-to- long term.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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