2012-09-10 06:00:15 - Argentina Power Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
With the opening of Argentinas Atucha II plant in late September 2011, and as work commenced to extend the Embalse plants working life in Q411, Argentinas government has confirmed its commitment to nuclear energy. Another indication that nuclear energy will be a key means of longerterm electricity production is the deal signed between UrAmerica and Cameco in October 2011, which will see the companies embark upon a strategic alliance to advance uranium exploration in Argentinas Chubut province. Argentina is officially aiming to have 15% of power generated by nuclear sources by 2025. On a short-to-medium scale, electricity will be produced by hydro, gas (a particularly important source following Repsols unconventional oil and gas find in Patagonia in November 2011) and
coalfired generators. Argentina also has clear goals for renewable energy expansion, with regulations stating that 8% of electricity must be generated by renewable sources by 2016. With the countrys gas resources dwindling, it makes sense to avoid rising import dependency. That said, in 2012, the government plans to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
During 2011-2016, Argentinas overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.7%, reaching 131 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 5.98% gain in coal-fired generation and a 3.31% rise gas-fired generation, accompanied by annual increases in renewables-based electricity supply. Industry observers believe Argentina has the scope to expand its hydro-electric capacity significantly, having so far exploited less than a quarter of its estimated potential. Wind power is also seeing a rise in investment and its potential contribution to the electricity supply, while Q411 also saw new investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) projects.
After being re-elected for a second term in October 2011, Argentinas President Cristina FernÃ¡ndez introduced new regulations that oblige energy firms to repatriate their export revenues â a move that is likely to deter international investors. One month later, BPs plans to sell its stake in Pan American Energy (PAE) to Argentinean firm Bridas and Chinese oil and gas firm China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) as part of a US$7bn deal collapsed â although Bridas attributed this to legal technicalities, rather than national legislation. Changes to electricity subsidies are also imminent, in a move that would enable providers to increase their prices.
Following forecast real GDP increase of 7.0% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.6% between 2011 and 2021. BMI calculates that net power consumption will increase from 113.3TWh to 128.0TWh by 2016. During 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.81%, but it will slow later in the decade to average 1.9% in 2016-2021.
Argentinas power supply shortfall is likely to increase over the short term, but should fall appreciably later in the decade as new capacity comes online. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from about 14% will help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is forecast at 14.07TWh, but it should be no more than 11.15TWh by 2021.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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