2013-08-27 09:35:38 - New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The Argentina Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concern about the impact on Argentina's economic outlook of the prospect of a sizeable currency devaluation. www.fastmr.com/prod/670610_argentina_retail_report_q3_2013.aspx
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Argentine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of deteriorating relations between Argentina and its key trade partners on the Argentine consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The latest report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Argentine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Full Report Details at
Argentine per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 28% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 27%. Argentina comes seventh (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/ Reward Ratings.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the outperformers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 24% between 2013 and 2017 - from US$5.69bn to US $7.06bn. PC penetration is fairly low at about 25%, and this is expected to climb to more than 30% by 2017, creating opportunities for vendors.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the Conectar Igualdad programme to provide 3mn PCs to public schools nationwide, which should provide opportunities for manufacturers and retailers alike. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
* BMI forecasts that the marked slowing in the Argentine economy will continue, with real GDP growth falling to 1.8% in 2013 from 1.9% in 2012, as currency devaluation pushes inflation higher, weighing on consumer and government spending, and liberalised import policies result in a greater net export drag on real GDP growth. That said, we forecast that base effects and greater competitiveness will boost real GDP growth to 2.9% in 2014.
* While BMI expects nominal private consumption growth to remain quite strong, we forecast real private consumption growth to fall to 0.5% in 2013 from 4.4% in 2012 on the back of even higher inflation than we witnessed in 2012 and an uptick in unemployment. As a result, we expect real private consumption to contribute just 0.3 percentage points to real GDP growth this year.
* We note that our 2012 inflation estimate of 24.9%, which far exceeds the official government reading of 10.8% inflation, shows prices rising faster than shopping centre sales and wage growth during parts of last year; a pattern we expect to continue over the next few quarters, underpinning our forecast for private consumption growth to slow.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: ARGENTINA - GDP BY EXPENDITURE
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Argentina Risk/Reward Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Latin America Overview
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2010-2017
- Current Trends
- Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Latin American Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: Latin American Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Argentina Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Market Overview
- Competitive Landscape
- Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
- Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
- Recent Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
- Retail Pharmacy Sector
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Argentina Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2017
- Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand
- Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand
- Sector News
- Consumer Electronics
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
- Market Overview
- Table: PC Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: AV Sales, 2010-2017
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Handsets
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.