2013-03-02 15:20:16 -
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Argentina Shipping Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine port sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix, but it continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties in the form of rising inflation and labour unrest. We forecast Argentine real GDP growth will slow to 0.9% in 2013 on the back of a poor business environment, weakening domestic demand, and high inflation - the result of a large currency devaluation. We see the potential for a more sound policy course and base effects to result in growth trending upward from 2014-2017.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541138_argentina_shipping_report_q2_2013.asp ..
Headline Industry Data
* Total volume at the Port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 5.4% in 2013
to reach 11.9mn tonnes. Box handling at the same port will contract by 4.8% to 1.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* The Port of Bahia Blanca will see 4.6% growth in volume to 14.0mn tonnes in 2013. Box handling at the port will also grow by 12.1% to 34,932TEUs.
Key Industry Trends
Strike Offers Downside Risk To Forecasts
BMI believes that downside risk is presented to our freight transport forecasts for Argentina as a general strike has been implemented. Although the action is only scheduled to last for 24 hours the disruption to shipments could be severe. Further, the strike is not the first to take place in Argentina in recent years, and could impact upon future growth at the country's ports should shipping companies become wary with regards to the market.
Cargotec Signs Buenos Aires Deal
Cargotec reported orders for four new Kalmar reach stackers from two operators in the Port of Buenos Aires. Two new Kalmar DRF420-60S5 reach stackers have been purchased by Ferroviaria Argentina SA (TEFASA). Two DRF450-65S5 models have been sold to an undisclosed port operator.
Risks To Outlook
The key risks to our outlook are on the downside. We maintain our view that Argentina faces strong economic headwinds: soaring inflation, fiscal profligacy and growing government intervention, which means the Argentine economy will struggle to sustain its current growth trajectory, as investors become increasingly cautious of the economy.
A lack of investment in the port infrastructure has resulted in frequent bottlenecks and delays at ports. Argentina has a weak financial system and relatively weak legal and regulatory frameworks. A high level of perceived corruption damages the appeal of doing business in the country, possibly acting as a deterrent to foreign port operators.
Strikes are frequent at Argentine ports, and these present further downside risks to our throughput forecasts. We caution that strikes could impact upon future growth at the country's ports should shipping companies become wary with regards to the market.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Shipping
- Business Environment
- Economic
- Political
Industry Forecast
- Port of Buenos Aires Throughput Outlook Q2 2013
- Bahia Blanca Throughput
- Table: Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Table: Main Export Partners
Market Overview
- Argentina Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
- Ultrapetrol
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
- Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
- Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
- Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
- Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long?
- Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
- Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
- Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
- Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
- LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Hanjin Shipping
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: Argentina - Economic Activity
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Argentina's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at
www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
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