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"Australia Food & Drink Report Q1 2014" Published

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2013-12-10 12:54:09 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Australia Food & Drink Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

A growing number of external and domestic signs point to tough times for the Australian economy in the quarters ahead, including a growing amount of evidence of job losses and capital expenditure cuts. These trends are in line with our expectations for economic activity to start slowing in H213. We expect these negative trends to accelerate as we enter into H213 and persist in 2014, as the economy struggles to rebalance away from overinvested industries such as mining and real estate. As a result, we continue to see a shift of consumption habits towards private labels in Australia over the coming years as a growing number of consumers acknowledge private labels as a very compelling alternative to proprietary branded goods.


Report Details at
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.4%; forecast to 2017 = +6.9%.
* 2014 soft drinks sales = +1.7%; forecast to 2017 = +11.9%.
* 2014 alcoholic drinks sales = +1.6%; forecast to 2017 = +11.0%.
* 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; forecast to 2017 = +27.6%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Downward Revision To Support Wheat Prices: We have revised down our forecast for wheat production from 25.5mn tonnes to 24.0mn tonnes after the ABARES (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) revised wheat output to 24.5mn tonnes. The revision comes on the back of dry conditions over most of Western Australia, and over-abundant rainfall in Eastern Australia. We expect more revisions to be made to output in the coming months and have placed our forecast slightly below the current official estimates. However, we believe more significant losses to output will be unlikely as yields are still expected to be higher than in 2012/13. ABARES and the USDA both forecast wheat yields around 1.85-86tonnes/hectares in 2013/14, compared to 1.67tonnes/ha in 2012/13.

Mondelez International To Enter New Markets: US-based food processing company Mondelez International plans to enter the coffee segment in the Netherlands and Australia through its Carte Noire and Velours Noir brands respectively as part of an effort to expand its global coffee footprint. The company also plans to introduce its Carte Noire Nespresso-compatible espresso capsules in Spain in mid-October as part of its global expansion drive.

Risks To Outlook

China could implement aggressive stimulus measures to support its weakening economy, which would in turn support Australian exports. While we maintain that any Chinese stimulus is likely to be smaller than the previous boost in 2008/2009, this remains a key risk and is something we will be watching closely.

Australian banks continue to be highly exposed to the domestic housing market. Given its reliance on external markets for funding, the banks could face a liquidity crisis should external counterparts withhold funding due to the deterioration of its balance sheet as the housing market sours. In order to prevent financial panic, government intervention could be needed in this scenario, which could force the budget deficit into double-digit territory

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
- Food
- Drink
- Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
Macroeconomic Forecast
- Economic Analysis
- Can The Construction Sector Do The Heavy-Lifting?
- Still Downbeat On Housing Market
- Constrained Government Policies Unlikely To Lift Building Demand
- Chinese Stimulus Presents Upside Risks To Outlook
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q114
- Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q114 (scores out of 10)
- Australia Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Food
- Food Processing
- Functional Foods
- Confectionery
- Canned Food
- Trade
- Agriculture
- Organic Farming
- Drink
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Hot Drinks
- Soft Drinks
- Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Trends And Developments
- Food
- Drink
- Mass Grocery Retail
Competitive Landscape
- Competitive Landscape - Food & Drink
- Table: Key Players In Australia's Food & Drink Sector
- Competitive Landscape - Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Key Players In Australia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Profile
- Dairy Farmers
- Heinz Australia
- Cadbury Australia
- Lion Nathan
- Foster's Group
- Coopers Brewery
- Coca-Cola Amatil
- Aldi
- Wesfarmers
- FoodWorks

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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