2012-09-10 06:01:16 - Austria Telecommunications Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
This quarter sees BMI extend its forecasts for Austrias fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets through to 2016 and these have been revised extensively following the disclosure of new baseline historical data from the regulator as well as the latest operating statistics of Austrias largest telecommunications companies. Essentially, the fixed-line market continues to grow (albeit very modestly), the rate of expansion in the mobile sector continues to slow due to market saturation and the fixed and mobile broadband services sectors is seen to be growing less vibrantly than previously reported.
The situation in the broadband sector is most interesting as the regulator has changed its methods for counting the number of mobile broadband customers - thought to be the real engine of
growth for broadband in general. The regulator now splits mobile broadband into data-only and smartphone (ie: voice and high-speed data packages). The data-only market grew by just 11.8% in the year to June 2011, yielding a total of 1.583mn connections. The smartphone segment grew by 207.4% to 1.199mn over the same period. It was the smartphone segment - previously left unexposed by regulatory data - that led us to believe that the mobile broadband market was growing much faster than it actually was. With fixed-line broadband connections growing by a more sedate 5.5% year-on-year, we have reined-in our expectations for the coming five years. By 2016, we now expect there to be 4.22mn broadband accesses in all, though we caution that the new LTE services launched in Q411 could yet lead to another surge in growth rates.
Over-reliance on mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) and heavily-discounted multi-play packages, as well as a growing preference on the part of consumers for inexpensive no-frills postpaid mobile broadband services, means that mobile customer addition rates remain relatively high despite market saturation, yet still do not generate meaningful revenue growth. Price promotions, free minutes and unlimited data allowances also conspire to prevent premium non-voice revenues from growing as strongly as they might. Further mobile termination rate (MTR) reductions also hobble revenue growth. Therefore, we forecast a slightly steeper rate of ARPU decline through to 2016, despite the launch of high-end services over LTE networks. Similarly, we are now less bullish concerning overall mobile subscriber and 3G subscriber growth prospects. BMI forecasts there will be 14.24mn mobile subscribers by 2016, of which 9.05mn will be dedicated 3G connections. We have yet to generate forecasts for LTE, bearing in mind that spectrum and licences have yet to be formalised and the market may consolidate around three operators.
At the time of writing it was being reported that the countrys two smallest mobile network operators - Orange and 3 - would combine in a EUR1.4bn merger orchestrated by 3. As surplus network assets and spectrum would be distributed to one or other of the remaining networks and as the combined entity would still be the smallest player, BMI sees no reason why this merger would be blocked. We also think the arrangement to be highly complementary for the companies involved, though we are less bullish about its long term revenue growth outlook.
Finally, it seems increasingly possible that incumbent Telekom Austria could come under new management as minority investors have banded together to give a small group of individuals a considerable stake in the operator. The investors wish to see Telekom Austria return to growth but have not said how they expect to achieve this goal. Meanwhile, the Austrian government remains intent on keeping control of the company. While we acknowledge that a far-ranging review of the business may be needed to ensure its long-term survival, we are less happy that the company could soon be managed by two groups of investors with very different views regarding business development and strategy.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
Click for report details: www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Telecommunications/Market-Res ..
Browse all Telecommunications Market Research Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Telecommunications/Market-Res ..
Browse all Telecommunications Company Profile Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/Telecommunications/Company-Pr ..
Browse all Latest Market Research Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All/Market-Research?aCode=f3f ..
Companiesandmarkets.com is a leading online business information aggregator with over 300,000 market reports and company profiles available to our clients. Our extensive range of reports are sourced from the leading publishers of business information and provide clients with the widest range of information available. In terms of company profiles, Companiesandmarkets.comâs online database allows clients access to market and corporate information to over 100,000 different companies. We provide clients with a fully indexed database of information where clients can find specific market reports on their niche industry sectors of interest.