2013-03-02 15:26:58 - Fast Market Research recommends "Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

The latest Azerbaijan petrochemicals report reflects our expectation that there will be long-term growth in capacity, but cautions that plans remain vague and there is no firm confirmation of proposed projects and potential partners. The report examines the country's strengths and weaknesses and assesses potential growth areas over the medium term. It also looks at government policy, which is focused intensively on developing the non-oil sector.

Azerbaijan is beginning to address major infrastructural constraints with a view to becoming a significant petrochemicals producer. Capacity utilisation at existing plants is restricted by lack of investment and maintenance, as well as the predominance of old and environmentally damaging technology. Projects outlined by the economy ministry are formulated based on prospective export markets. However,

the industry is highly underdeveloped and there is a gap between the country's petrochemicals ambitions and available feedstock. In the past, output has been undermined by the rising cost of electricity, which state-run chemicals company Azerkimya has been unable to afford - leaving it needing a government financial lifeline. This has been overcome by transferring control of the company to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (Socar).


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541145_azerbaijan_petrochemicals_report_q2_2 ..


Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* The local market will remain small and register low growth in 2013 due to the effects of declining fixed investment and deteriorating oil prices on the Azerbaijani economy. Although the non-oil economy grew at a strong rate in 2012, growth is deteriorating and this poses a major risk to short-term petrochemicals consumption. Nevertheless, it will be of less concern to the country's petrochemicals producers, who have their eyes on export markets.
* The focus in 2013 will be on the new export-oriented 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) methanol production facility, which was due to come onstream in Q113 and will raise total methanol capacity in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa. Around 90% of production will be sold abroad, with the remainder being utilised by non-oil sectors, including the production of acetic acid (165,000tpa), formaldehyde (18,000tpa) and melamine (15,000tpa).
* A fertiliser project is also planned at AzMeCo's plant in Karadagh, with capacities of 255,000tpa ammonia and 500,000tpa urea. Socar is also planning two fertiliser plants, each with 700,000tpa of urea capacity, one in Azerbaijan and one in Georgia. Construction is due to begin in mid-2013 and will be completed by end-2016. The objective is for Azerbaijan to raise its fertiliser exports to 1mn tpa.
* Azerbaijan is in tenth and last place in BMI's proprietary risk/reward ratings (RRRs), with a score of 35.2 points - up 0.5 points on the previous quarter due to an improvement in its country risk score and the planned expansion of methanol capacity in Q113. Azerbaijan is 4.3 points behind Ukraine. Azerbaijan's score could rise if plans for a new integrated petrochemicals complex come to fruition, but this is unlikely to come onstream before 2018. Azerbaijan's considerable energy reserves and rising gas output have not enhanced petrochemicals capacity, largely owing to a poor business environment, which has deterred investors. However, there are signs that this is changing for the better as the government makes a concerted effort to restructure the sector.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Table: Petrochemicals Sector, 2009-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Trouble In The South East
- Hungary Leads EU Petrochemicals Recovery
- High Risks, But High Rewards In Russia, Azerbaijan
- Table: Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Table: Cracker Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ('000 tpa)
- Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 2000-2011 ('000 tonnes)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Upstream
Company Profile
- Azerkimya
- State Oil Company Of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)
Regional Overview
- Europe Overview
- Short-term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
- Looking Beyond Europe
- Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook?
- Commonwealth Of Independent States' Capacity Growth
Global Industry Overview
- Global Petrochemicals Overview
- Change In Feedstock, But Not In Market Cycle
- Polymers Heading On Different Trajectories
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
- Refiners: Is The Party Over?
- Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
- Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
- Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
- Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
- Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Azerbaijan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Azerbaijan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Azerbaijan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary
- Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms
Methodology
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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