2012-10-27 18:15:23 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bahrain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Per-capita spending on pharmaceuticals in Bahrain is expected to almost double in the 10 years to 2021, from some US$182 calculated for 2011, but will still remain a fraction of that in developed-country terms. Many multinational drug firms and other investors may continue to avoid Bahrain as the small size of the market will limit the potential return on their investment, especially given the unresolved political situation and the emergence of local manufacturing. Still, spending will generally remain driven by the expanding population, increasing consumption of medicines, government programmes targeting non-communicable diseases, significant expansion of healthcare facilities and the growing cost of medical imports.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: BHD91mn (US$240mn) in 2011 to BHD96mn (US$255mn) in 2012; +6.1%
in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors.
* Healthcare: BHD418mn (US$1.11bn) in 2011 to BHD448mn (US$1.19bn) in 2012; +7.3% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors and new historical data.
* Medical devices: BHD26mn (US$68mn) in 2011 to BHD27mn (US$73mn) in 2012; +6.7% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479373_bahrain_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In the Q412 version of our proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix for the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Bahrain is still ranked seventh out of the 30 markets surveyed in the region. The country's composite score also stands at an unchanged 54.9, although the country's longer term potential remains weighted down by its small population numbers. On the other hand, Bahrain's well-developed business environment and demographic and epidemiological trends will continue providing commercial opportunities for innovative drugmakers. Globally, Bahrain ranks 36th out of the 95 markets assessed in total using our RRR model, up from 38th in Q312.
Key Trends And Developments
* The authorities are increasingly targeting lifestyles that have led to the increase of long-term health problems. To this end, in August 2012, Bahrain officially inaugurated its first 'Healthy People' clinic, which will inform patients on healthy lifestyle choices. Around the same time, the government launched a new anti-smoking campaign, which has been approved across the wider Gulf states region.
* In July 2012, Japanese drugmaker SBI Pharmaceuticals was reported to have plans to construct a new plant in Bahrain. Around the same time, ArabianBusiness reported that Innovest will construct the Gulf Biotic insulin plant at the Salman Industrial City. The production is expected to start in two years' time, with the output to be in the region of 26mn unites of vials and cartridges per annum.
* According to Arabian Business reports from August 2012, an increasing number of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nationals, including Bahrainis, are being treated abroad. The source, quoting a Gallup survey, indicated that 65% of Kuwaiti nationals would seek treatment for a serious condition outside their home country. The figure stood at 39% for the UAE, 47% in Bahrain, and 43% in both Oman and Qatar. On the other end of the spectrum, only 35% of Saudi nationals are inclined to seek treatment abroad. Nevertheless, the survey results also suggest that GCC residents are the most satisfied MENA populations in regards to the quality of healthcare available in their area.
BMI Economic View: We are projecting a widening in Bahrain's budget deficit in 2012 and 2013, with our view based on an increased reliance on oil revenues and a need to stimulate activity within the nonhydrocarbon economy, despite oil prices remaining above long-run historical averages through the first eight months of 2012. Latest data from the Ministry of Finance only goes up to 2011, and shows total revenues increasing 29.7% last year to come in at BHD2.8bn. This was driven primarily by a surge in oil receipts, which increased 33.8%, compared to growth in non-oil income of only 5.9%. In contrast, total government expenditure grew by a more moderate 8.3%, which helped reduce the fiscal deficit from a near record high of 5.6% of GDP in 2010.
BMI Political View: A fundamental resolution to Bahrain's political crisis is unlikely in the near term. We expect small-scale protests by the Shi'a opposition to continue, with risks of a more pronounced insurgency likely to build the longer the crisis remains unresolved. That said, given the government's firm grip on power and minimal pressure being exerted from outside, Manama should have little trouble implementing its own policy programme heading into 2013.
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