Today: November 27, 2015, 2:39 pm

Belarus food consumption forecast to increase significantly in 2014
Belarus Food and Drink Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on 2014-03-17 05:24:04
We expect to see significant growth in food consumption in Belarus (in rubles) over 2014 and continuing over our forecast period to 2017. However, this expansion will not be driven by increased economic activity, with real GDP growth per capita (in US dollar terms) forecast to contract by 2.8% and 1.5% in 2014 and 2015. Rather, the growth will be fuelled by price increases, with inflation expected to increase 17.5% in both 2014 and 2015 at a compound annual growth rate of 22.7% through to 2017. In 2010, however, this growth is coming from a very low base; based on 2010 figures, Belarus had the ninth lowest GDP per capita of all sovereign nations in Europe, and we consider it a risky market due to its political isolation from much of Europe and the high level of government intervention in economic matters.

The country´s high level of inflation over the past few years, which we expect to continue while gradually decreasing, is a further concern, particularly for consumer goods sectors.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

2014 food consumption value growth = +17.12% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +15.88%.

2014 per capita food consumption value growth = +17.74% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +16.47%.

2014 wine value sales growth = +19.19% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +16.63%.

2014 functional soft drinks value sales growth = +18.64% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +15.82%.

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Mike King
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