2013-02-28 15:04:04 - New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Belgium Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"

Core Views

Despite a promising recovery from the global financial crisis, the Belgian economy is now struggling against mounting headwinds from the eurozone.

A particular concern is the national debt which, at close to 100% of GDP, leaves Belgium vulnerable to a deterioration in risk sentiment and a slowdown in economic growth.

Although the formation of a new government has ended 18 months of political paralysis, the six-party coalition could yet struggle to overcome ideological differences in order to tackle much-needed fiscal and economic reform.

Major Forecast Changes

There are no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are significant downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming

from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536345_belgium_business_forecast_report_q2_2 ..


Upside Risks To Inflation: Further euro weakness and the potential for a fresh rally in global energy prices could in turn keep inflation elevated.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Political Challenges For 2013
- We believe that Belgium, and the eurozone more broadly, could fare better in 2013 than 2012 as a result of several favourable policy developments in the second half of last year. However, Belgian policymakers will face several challenges in 2013, not least from the sluggish economic recovery and growing pressure to sign up for further European integration.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
A Tough Year Ahead
- The Belgian economy has lost momentum and will post anaemic growth in 2013. The impact on private sector confidence of the previous escalation in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has been palatable and will continue to underpin weak data in the coming quarters. However, we view constructively recent policy developments in the eurozone, which should support a firming recovery towards the end of 2013.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Key Sectors
Petrochemicals
TABLE: BELGIUM SECTOR DATA AND FORECASTS, 2010-2017
Freight Transport
TABLE: AIR FREIGHT
TABLE: RAIL FREIGHT
TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT
TABLE: MARITIME FREIGHT
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FREIGHT SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth May Be Turning The Corner
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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