2013-03-03 10:47:38 - Fast Market Research recommends "Belgium Metals Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
The outlook for Belgium's metals sector is poor as overcapacity in China weighs on steel prices, the mainstay of the industry. We forecast steel production to reach 7.9mntpa in 2017, significantly lower than the 2008 high of over 10mntpa.
A decline in demand growth in export markets has dealt a blow for the Belgian steel industry. ArcelorMittal's planned permanent closure of two blast furnaces in Liege, which were shuttered in 2012, is now inevitable and as a result the industry will not return to pre-2008 levels of production for the foreseeable future. By the end of 2012, available crude steel capacity was limited to just over 8mn tonnes per annum (mntpa), although rolling operations remained in action. Duferco has permanently closed
its Carsid site after talks with potential takeover candidates failed. This will permanently remove the 2.1mntpa of slab capacity that had been taken offline in 2008. It also ended Duferco's crude steelmaking activities in Belgium.
Full Report Details at
* ArcelorMittal's downstream operations could be subject to closure if ArcelorMittal decides that they are contributing to over-capacity and poor margins amid a collapse in European demand and a severe imbalance in the market.
* Once more, a sharp slowdown in 2012 will mean it will take a four- or five-year period for domestic consumption to return to pre-recession levels, with 2017 consumption reaching around 4.6mn tonnes, a level more typical of the years prior to the collapse in demand.
* BMI believes that it is unlikely that crude steel output will exceed much beyond 8mntpa over the longterm due to capacity closures, down over a quarter from the pre-2008 levels.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Metals SWOT
- Table: Belgium - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: Belgium- Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Steel Price Forecast
- Table: BMI Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Commodities Forecast
- Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now
- Steel: Bleak Outlook
- Aluminium: Major Gains Over
- Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk
- Lead: Heading Lower
- Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs
- Tin: Continued Outperformance
- Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
- Table: Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
- Business Environment Ratings Methodology
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