2013-12-04 06:23:10 - Fast Market Research recommends "Belgium Petrochemicals Report 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Belgium remains a significant petrochemicals producer in Western Europe, although the dynamics of the industry are changing in line with the wider trends in the mature domestic and regional market. A reduction of polyethylene (PE) capacity is set to be followed by expansion in polyesters, butadiene and synthetic fibres, indicating that investors are not abandoning the industry in spite of the challenges posed by the downturn in key markets, particularly the automotive sector.
In 2013, Belgium had ethylene capacity of 2.54mntpa with intermediate and aromatics capacities of 870,000tpa benzene, 890,000tpa ethylbenzene, 1.94mntpa ethylene dichloride (EDC), 810,000tpa vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and 600,000tpa xylenes. In terms of polymers, Belgium has capacities of 1.64mn tpa high density polyethylene (HDPE), 930,000tpa low density polyethylene
(LDPE), 2.1mn tpa polypropylene (PP), 475,000tpa polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and 645,000tpa polystyrene (PS). However, over the course of 2013, HDPE output was down 190,000tpa due to the closure of a plant by Dow in late 2012.
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Belgium's export sector is dominated by relatively low technology goods supplying downstream processors in Germany and elsewhere. However, increased investment throughout the value chain, particularly in products utilised by the automotive industry, will improve the external competitiveness of the petrochemicals sector. The Ineos ethylene terminal at Antwerp, which began operations in early 2013, equates to the addition of a cracker with 1mn tpa ethylene capacity in terms of supply availability. Not only will this shore up feedstock supplies to Ineos' EO plant, it is fundamental to the polyester production chain.
Recent Developments and Key Forecasts:
* The polyester chain will lead growth in 2014 with the most prominent development being JBF Industries' 432,000tpa PET plant in Geel, which is expected to be complete in 2014.
* Meanwhile, BASF is increasing cyclohexane oxidation capacity by 50,000tpa by end-2014.
* Lanxess is constructing a 90,000tpa polyamide plastics plant in Antwerp with capacity of 90,000tpa to begin operations in Q114, utilising caprolactam feed supply by an existing facility at the site.
* Evonik is expanding butadiene capacity at its Antwerp plant by 100,000tpa in its drive to increase its market presence in C4-based products. The expansion is set to come onstream in 2015. Growth in butadiene will serve the synthetic rubber sector, particularly in the automotive tyre sector.
* Belgium's economic recovery is set to pick up in 2014 with GDP growth rising from 0.4% to 1.6%. While economic growth will be outstripped by industrial growth, key end markets may not follow the growth trend. The Belgian automotive sector, which serves as a major consumer of domestically produced synthetic rubber, polyurethane and engineering plastics, is set to decline over coming years due to the planned closure of Ford's plant in Genk in 2014, which is being accompanied by the closure of some suppliers.
* Belgium scores 72.0 points in BMI's Europe RRRs for the petrochemical industry, down 0.5 points over the past year due to a decline in market risk. This puts it in fourth place in the ranking, out of a total of 16. It lies 1.6 points behind France and the Netherlands, which share joint second place, and 0.6 points ahead of the UK. While Belgium has a significant and integrated petrochemical industry, it performs less well in terms of country risk and structural factors. Improved financial infrastructure and a better long-term financial risk rating would improve Belgium's score.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Table: Belgium Sector Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Belgium - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Belgium Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Belgium Olefins Facilities
- Table: Belgium Aromatics And Intermediates Facilities
- Table: Belgium Polyolefins Facilities
Industry Trends And Developments
- Upstream and refining
- Table: Refineries In Belgium
- Total Petrochemicals
- Solvay SA
- Europe Overview
- Declining capacities
- Table: European cracker capacities, 2013
Global Industry Overview
- A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014?
- Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Threats to growth
- Global Oil Product Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Table: Belgium's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Belgium's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Belgium's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Belgium's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Risk Reward Rating Methodology
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward RATING Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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