2013-03-20 12:08:59 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "BMI India Retail Report Q2 2013"
The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact of fiscal and trade deficits that remain near historic highs on India's economic outlook.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of depressed EU demand on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia
Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms for risk.
Full Report Details at
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 107.9% between 2013 and 2017, from US$34.79bn to US $72.33bn as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecast:
* Despite the pervasive weakness of recent economic data, there is sufficient evidence across leading indicators to suggest that economic conditions will start to improve in the coming quarters. With this in mind, BMI is sticking to its above-consensus view on the economy, with our 5.7% and 6.8% real GDP growth projections for FY2012/13 and FY2013/14 coming in well above the Bloomberg median of 5.4% and 5.8%, respectively.
* With the population expected to increase from 1.28bn in 2013 to 1.34bn by 2017, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 64.2% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$3,511.
* The value of the retail segment is expected to grow from an estimated INR23.97trn (US$570.75bn) in 2013 to INR36.18trn (US$939.75bn) by 2017, a rise of 50.9%.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Retail SWOT
- Business Environment
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Positive Implications For Reform
- Staying Above Consensus
- Table: India - GDP by Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- India Risk/Reward Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Regional Overview
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Key Growth Drivers
- Economic Growth
- Population Growth
- Growth In Organised Retail
- Multinational Investment
- Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Table: Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
- Table: Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2011
- Table: Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (INRmn), 2005-2011
- Table: Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Table: India Consumer Electronics Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast
- Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2009-2017
- Table: India Autos - Trade, 2009-2017
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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