2012-05-20 14:05:51 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: With investment flowing into a series of development projects, the short-term outlook for the Bolivian gas sector is positive. Rising gas output will allow Bolivia to raise export volumes to its southern neighbour Argentina in line with the 2010 gas supply deal, and maintain its position as a major regional supplier. In the wake of the reserves scandal, however, the long-term outlook is much more sanguine.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Bolivian Oil and Gas sector are:
* The Bolivian government has seized Argentina-based Pan American Energy (PAE)'s 25% stake in the Caipipendi gas field, according to Energy Minister Juan Jose Sosa. The move came after the company failed to make promised investment in the
field, Sosa added. The stake is to be assumed by Bolivian oil and gas company Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB), while PAE will receive compensation. The decree is to take effect immediately (February 2012).
* Bolivia hopes to attract investment of US$2bn into its oil and gas industry in 2012, reports Dow Jones, citing state-owned YPFB. This represents an increase on investment of US$1.2bn in 2011. YPFB, which is looking to acquire 42 new areas during a licensing round in 2012, will provide 64% of the expected capital expenditure (capex). Meanwhile, the government is inviting private companies to invest in Bolivia's upstream sector.
* In spite of a number of challenges, we expect Bolivia's gas sector to expand over the short term. We forecast gas production will rise from an estimated 15.1bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 19.5bcm in 2016, largely on the back of Repsol YPF's Margarita gas project. Gas supply could reach 20.0bcm by 2020.
* Over the same period, Bolivia's domestic gas consumption should continue growing at a fairly healthy rate, but overall consumption should remain at below 4bcm until around 2020. This should allow for exports to grow in line with Bolivia's 2010 gas supply deal with Argentina and existing supply agreement with Brazil. We forecast gas exports will rise from an estimated 12.3bcm in 2011 to about 16.1bcm in 2016, before exceeding 17.0bcm in the latter half of the decade.
* The country's gas sector was plunged into crisis after a resources scandal saw its reserves base cut in half. The crisis threw the country's reliability as a long-term regional gas supplier into doubt. In an attempt to address the issue, YPFB said in May 2011 that the first new exploration concessions in the country since 2006 would be awarded in the near future.
* We forecast oil production climbing from about 56,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 60,000b/d in 2013. From 2014, however, oil production will start to decline, falling to about 51,000b/d by 2021. Demand is expected to rise by 2% per year over the period, with consumption nearing 79,000b/d by 2021. As a result, Bolivia will retain a modest oil import requirement.
Full Report Details at
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011, reflecting slower growth in China and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Bolivia Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
- Table: Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Table: Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Bolivia Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Bolivia Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Bolivia Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining and Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Oil And Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Bolivian Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Player
- Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB)
- Petroleo Brasileiro
- Repsol YPF E&P Bolivia
- Total - Summary
- BG Group - Summary
- YPFB Chaco - Summary
- Petroandina - Summary
- Gazprom - Summary
- Transredes - Summary
- YPFB Logistica - Summary
- GTL International - Summary
Latin America - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
- Table: Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
- Table: Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
- Table: Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
- Table: Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016
- Table: Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016
- Table: Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021
- Table: Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016
- Table: Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
- Table: LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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