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Bosnia and Herzegovina Infrastructure Report Q1 2014

Bosnia and Herzegovina Infrastructure Market: New market research published

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2014-02-07 17:42:04 - Bosnia and Herzegovina Infrastructure Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on

The latest data from Bosnia and Herzegovina´s statistical authorities have led us to make some downward adjustments to our growth forecasts for the country´s construction industry. We now estimate that the sector expanded by just 0.5% in 2013, compared to a prediction of 3.7% previously, and we forecast real industry growth of 1.8% in 2014. While we predict that growth will pick up gradually over the next few years, we believe that persistent political uncertainty and a weak business environment will weigh on the sector´s prospects.

Key developments include:

- Final data indicate that the recession in 2012 was not as severe as preliminary estimates suggested, with a full year contraction of 0.9%, according to the Bosnia-Herzegovina Agency for Statistics (BHAS). Fixed



investment rose by 1.5% in 2012, a marked slowdown from the 7.3% outturn recorded in 2011. While there are still no quarterly data GDP releases in Bosnia, our country risk analysts maintain that the country witnessed a modest recovery of 0.5% in 2013 and we expect this to gather momentum in 2014.

Nevertheless, we expect gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to be among the weaker performing components of GDP over the near term as investor sentiment towards the country remains subdued.

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Mike King
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