2012-11-14 22:16:58 - Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
The economic recovery is losing momentum alongside the escalation in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We expect economic activity to pick up in 2013 but warn that further demand destruction in the single currency area could slam the brakes on Bosnia´s fragile recovery. A central government may have finally been agreed, but political instability remains a lingering concern. The highly fractious state of Bosnian politics means that future reform momentum will likely be lagging, preventing the country from realising its full growth potential.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 real GDP growth forecasts to 0.1% and 1.1% respectively, from previous forecasts of 1.9% and 2.3%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Risks To Growth: With much depending on
external demand, the risk of a slowdown in Bosnia´s key export partners elsewhere in Europe could threaten the recovery and our growth projections.
Upside Risks To Inflation: Since the economic downturn, inflation has been fairly subdued. However, there are risks of a surge in imported inflationary pressure given the recent surge in some global agricultural prices such as corn and wheat.
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