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Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - New Market Research Report

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2014-01-26 17:35:01 - New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q1 2014"

The domestic political environment remains heavily divided along ethnic lines, stunting structural reform and weighing on the country's EU membership ambitions. Increased international pressure may push the government to approve some long-delayed reforms, but progress is set to remain slow.

The economy is set to return to positive growth after an estimated 0.9% contraction in 2012, led by falling household spending and external demand. A recovery in both these areas - especially ex -ports - will help drive modest growth of 0.6% in 2013, with this set to rise to 2.1% the following year.

The government's Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF will continue to anchor fiscal policy and is likely to ensure that a budget for 2014 is approved at both the

entity and state levels before the end of the year.

Full Report Details at
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Major Forecast changes

Latest inflation figures have prompted us to lower our estimate for annual average inflation in 2013, to 0.8%, from a previous 1.8%. We have also lowered our average forecast for 2014 to 2.0%, from a previous 3.0%, though our core view for accelerating price growth as the economic recovery gathers momentum remains in place.
Key risks to outlook

The country's first post-war census was finally carried out in October 2013, an important achievement that nonetheless generates new risks given the potential effect the results could have on the country's complex power-sharing agreements.

The 2014 general election is also major source of uncertainty and risk given the experience of 2010, when it took almost two years for coalition agreements to be settled at all levels of governments. A stalemate after the vote would further damage the country's invest -ment climate and delay EU integration.

Report Table of Contents:

The table of contents for this report is available upon request.

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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