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Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - new country guide report published

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2014-02-19 07:57:01 - Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on

Though the coalition government has reiterated its commitment to a common goal, we believe the domestic political environment will remain heavily divided along ethnic lines, posing a significant impediment to structural reform and threatening the country´s EU membership ambitions.

The economy will begin to rebound from the double-dip recession in 2013, though this recovery will be slow and vulnerable to external headwinds, particularly from the eurozone.

The passing of the 2013 budget by the central government and across the entities was an important milestone for fiscal policy, though ongoing political uncertainty and limited administrative capacity pose a threat to successful execution.

Major Forecast Changes

There have been no major forecast changes this quarter.

Risks To Outlook

Failure to agree on



a key reform issue this year, such as the delayed census, could trigger an irreparable split in the governing coalition, even before the 2014 election date. This would lead to another political impasse that would delay progress towards EU accession even further.

The accession of key trade partner Croatia, the second most important destination for Bosnian exports, to the EU in July poses a key risk to the local economy as only goods meeting EU standards will continue to be exchanged.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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Mike King
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