2013-12-04 04:08:04 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence & Security Report 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Political instability remains the key security concern in Bosnia in the near term. With a general election due in October 2014, party brinkmanship could exacerbate ethnic divisions among the population of Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks. Nevertheless, at the time of writing Bosnia's candidacy for European Union membership has been described as being 'on track' by a senior EU official. Security threats stem from a number of issues including: threats of Serb succession; regional developments with Croatia and Kosovo; porous borders facilitating organised crime and the black market trade in arms. Defence spending is forecast to fall over the year from a huge drop in 2013; due to a lack of government funded procurement, Bosnia will continue in its role as
a small arms exporter.
Bosnia is preparing for an election later in 2014 which, coupled with the October 2013 holding of the country's first census, could witness an increase in polarisation among Bosnia's ethnic groups. Tensions between Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats - will remain the defining issue of the country's political landscape over the next 10 years. Failure to agree on key reforms issues, such as the delayed census, could trigger an irreparable split in the governing coalition, even before the 2014 election date However, economically the country has begun to rebound from a double-dip recession, though this recovery will be slow and vulnerable to external headwinds, particularly from the eurozone. BMI is forecasting Bosnian GDP growth to come in at 1.9% in 2014.
Full Report Details at
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This economic recovery is not reflected in defence spending, where ongoing rationalisation of the armed forces, is seeing a decline the military's budget. Assuming Bosnia & Herzegovina retain its military - amid calls for total demilitarisation, particularly from ethnic Serbs - and its central government holds together, we anticipate defence spending of US$180.3mn in 2014, a 3.6% decline on the US$187.0mn spent in 2013, which in itself marked a decrease of 17.8% on 2012's expenditure. This will account for just 1.00% of the country's GDP in local currency terms.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's military currently consists of around 15,000 active troops, 5,000 reserve troops and 1,000 civilian staff. From its population of 3.75mn, Bosnia has 1.8mn men and women aged between 16 and 49 theoretically available to serve in its armed forces; this is a 6.9% drop on ten years ago. Although the country had 60,000 NATO and EUFOR peacekeeping troops in place in 1995, this has since been significantly reduced.
This 2014 Annual Defence & Security report contains:
* Statistical data on Bosnia's relatively healthy small-arms export trade
* Details on moves to reduce internal security threats such as working with OSCE to secure domestic stocks of arms and ammunition
An examination of the country's declining defence spend and what this means for its armed forces.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Security SWOT
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence and Security SWOT
- Business Environment
- Defence Spending
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence Expenditure 2010 - 2017
- Armed Forces
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Sector Production
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence Imports (US$mn) 2010 - 2017
- Table: Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence Exports (US$mn) 2010 - 2017
- Economic Analysis
- Table: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Europe Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Europe Regional Security Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
- Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Security Risk Ratings
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Defence Market Overview
- Armed Forces
- Domestic Industries
- Bosnia-Herzegovina Security Overview
- Domestic Threats
- Regional Threats
- Europe Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Global Political Outlook
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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