2012-09-05 09:39:09 - Botswana Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 5.4% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2013. The solid outlook is driven by growing interest in the countrys mining sector and the infrastructural investment that this will necessitate, but subdued public consumption coupled with uncertain external demand tempers our forecasts.

Governance continues to receive high marks in Botswana, and the latest budget figures show commitment to controlling spending and reducing the deficit.

While diamonds will continue to dominate the economy for years to come, we highlight copper and coal mining, infrastructure, telecoms and banking as other sectors poised for growth.

Major Forecast Changes

We have made revisions to our balance of payments projections for Botswana, as a slowing global growth environment is likely to rein

 

 

in demand for diamonds. We are now forecasting the current account to post a deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2012, from a previous prediction of a 0.1% surplus. However, we maintain our view that a surplus will eventually be recorded, albeit now in 2013, at 0.8% of GDP.

Key Risks To Outlook

Botswanas growth remains inextricably linked to the condition of the global economy, with particular exposure to the demand for its key export, diamonds. A greater slowdown than we currently anticipate in the economic expansion of wealthy countries would be detrimental to our growth forecasts.

A full resolution to the public sector strikes held between April and June 2011 has not been forthcoming as the government ceded to a 3% pay rise for civil servants, far lower than the 16% demanded. Another flare up of strikes would likely cause further economic disruption. Similarly, popular protest over the governments privatisation plans could have negative economic consequences.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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