2013-09-17 09:15:40 - Fast Market Research recommends "Brazil Freight Transport Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2013 and over our medium-term forecast period (2013-2017), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class.
Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates - and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial
unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/684712_brazil_freight_transport_report_q4_20 ..
Key Industry Data
* Air freight tonnes to grow 5.26% in 2013 to reach 1.25mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2017, we predict that growth will average 6% a year.
* Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 3.7% in 2013 to reach 108mn tonnes. To 2017, we predict average annual growth of 7.0%.
* Rail freight tonnes to grow by 2.8% in 2013 to reach 543mn tonnes. To 2017, we predict average annual growth of 3.4%.
Key Industry Trends
Vale Takes Delivery Of Vale Caofeidian
Brazilian miner Vale has expanded its fleet with the delivery of a 380,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) very large ore carrier (VLOC), Vale Caofeidian, from China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Limited. The vessel was delivered on July 22.
Strike Threat Persists
The Brazilian ports sector remains at risk of industrial action, and with this comes risk to BMI's throughput growth forecasts for the country's maritime facilities in 2013 and beyond.
Latam Airlines Announces US$1bn Capital Increase
Latam Airlines announced a US$1bn capital increase to finance its investment plan and strengthen its balance sheet. Latam Airlines aims to improve its financial profile to gain investment-grade rating, to help it obtain less-expensive financing.
Risks To Outlook
The key risk to our outlook facing the Brazilian freight transport sector is the very real possibility that Brazil will not adequately improve its infrastructure in order to keep pace with global demand for its exports; there have been further instances of delays in sugar loading during the past quarter. These delays raise further questions as to whether the ports (and roads and airports) will be able to cope with the demands placed upon them as the country gets ready to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games which are due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
BMI highlights that further downside risk is presented by the potential for major disruptions at Brazil's state-run ports over the coming months on the back of additional strikes by the country's dockworkers over MP 595. With labour unions already having stopped work at the country's state-run ports for six hours on February 22, and another strike in July, we believe more strikes are likely in the coming months as the government continues to push back against union demands.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Brazil's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Brazil's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Industry Trends And Developments
- LATAM Cargo
- Santos Brasil Participacoes
- Vale (Logistics)
- Alianca Navegacao e Logistica
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Transport Industry
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