2013-12-27 10:15:59 - Fast Market Research recommends "Brazil Freight Transport Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.
Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected
growth rates - and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754480_brazil_freight_transport_report_q1_20 ..
Key Industry Data
* Air freight tonnes to grow 5.4% in 2014 to reach 1.81mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2018, we predict that growth will average 6.5% a year.
* Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 4.8% in 2014 to reach 115.92mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 5.4%.
* Rail freight tonnes to grow by 2.7% in 2014 to reach 543mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 3.5%.
Key Industry Trends
Valemax China Saga Finally Resolved With Shandong Shipping Deal?
Vale's strategy of increasing Brazilian iron ore's role in China's steel manufacturing could finally become a reality, with the mining firm signing a deal with a Chinese shipping company Shandong Shipping Corporation to operate four of its Valemax ships. The ban on Valemax ships docking at Chinese harbours was reportedly due to safety worries, but the assumption in the industry has been that there was a political element to the ban, with the Chinese Shipowners' Association lobbying against the Valemax, due the threat it posed to their dry bulk fleets.
Governments Plan Inter-Oceanic Railroad
The governments of Brazil, Peru and Bolivia intend to construct an inter-oceanic railroad between Peru's Pacific coast and Brazil's Atlantic coast, according to media reports. The railroad is aimed at facilitating trade activities between the countries. The railway will originate in the Peruvian port city of Ilo and extend to the Bolivian port city of Puerto Suarez.
Government May Stop Subsidising Imports Of Gasoline And Diesel
The Brazilian government may stop subsidising imports of gasoline and diesel, which could reduce South American demand for clean oil products, according to media sources. Brazilian transportation fuel subsidies have decreased expenses for consumers, who have secured long-standing market discounts for gasoline and diesel, according to a recent report by Poten & Partners.
Risks To Outlook
The key risk to our outlook facing the Brazilian freight transport sector is the very real possibility that Brazil will not adequately improve its infrastructure in order to keep pace with global demand for its exports; there have been further instances of delays in sugar loading during the past quarter. These delays raise further questions as to whether the ports (and roads and airports) will be able to cope with the demands placed upon them as the country gets ready to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games which are due to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Brazil's Main Import Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn)
- Table: Brazil's Main Export Partners, 2005-2011 (US$mn)
Industry Trends And Developments
- LATAM Cargo
- Santos Brasil Participacoes
- Vale (Logistics)
- Alianca Navegacao e Logistica
- Political Risk Analysis
- Economy To Dominate Policymaking
- Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Economic Analysis
- Table: BRAZIL - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
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