2013-03-13 17:42:03 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Brazil Power Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: The majority of electricity is generated by hydroelectric sources of power, and while rains in late 2012 and early 2013 mean that dams should function at full capacity during 2013, this dependence upon hydro sources of energy is not without its risks. Hydroelectricity also brings with it environmental and social concerns - with work stopping and restarting at the controversial Belo Monte dam. In terms of diversification, the government is making progress on the development of Angra 3 nuclear power station, while renewable sources of electricity - particularly wind power - are another key area of growth. One other challenge remains: given the huge distances separating sources of electricity power and populated areas, Brazil must ensure its transmission
and distribution grid can connect one with the other.
Brazil's ambitious Belo Monte hydroelectric dam project continues to generate controversy; work was suspended in Q412 following protests by workers, but by January 2013, construction had resumed. While no changes have been made to the target completion date for the plant, we suspect that it will be delayed beyond 2015. Some positive news did emerge for Belo Monte in early 2013: with the Norte Energia consortium charged with the project securing a BLR5.2bn (US$2.54bn) credit line to fund work. The quarter also saw other developments in hydroelectric sources of power, with the 77-megawatt (MW) Sao Joao dam beginning operations, and regulator ANEEL granting the 3,750MW Jirau dam approval to begin operations in March 2013. There is also a shift towards small-scale hydroelectric projects, which have less of an impact on the environment and are more likely to gain approval.
Full Report Details at
Our Q113 report on Brazil's power market shows that the energy sector continues to post healthy growth. We forecast that Brazil's power sector will continue to post strong demand, even though some risks remain, with growth in consumption expected to average 4.4% per annum between 2012 and 2022. BMI calculates that total electricity generation in 2012 stood at an estimated 551.66 terawatt hours (TWh) and that this figure will rise to 868.26TWh by 2022. We forecast that hydroelectricity generation will continue to dominate the energy mix, having accounted for an estimated 442.49TWh in 2012, which we see rising to 645.12TWh by 2022.
Brazil's government has made progress in increasing its appeal to investors, with the news that - as announced - electricity costs would be lowered for both domestic and industrial users. Tariffs fell by an average of 20.2%, with effect from January 24 2013.
Key developments in Brazil's power sector:
* In January 2013, Eletrobras denied plans to split the company into three separate units, for electricity, generation and transmission & distribution.
* ANEEL awarded 13 lines in a transmission auction in December 2012, in contracts valued at a total of BRL4.3bn (US$2.08bn). The 3,868km of transmission lines will take between 22 and 36 months to construct.
In November 2012, a Brazilian court blocked the environmental licence at Sao Luiz do Tapajos 7.8- gigawatt hydroelectric power plant, in the Amazon region; it was scheduled to begin operations in December 2017.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Brazil Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Brazil Power Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 2011-2016
- Table: Brazil Total Electricity Generation Data And Long Term Forecasts 2017-2022
- Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 2011-2016
- Table: Brazil Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long Term Forecasts 2017-2022
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Brazil Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2011-2016
- Table: Brazil Total Electricity Consumption Data And Long Term Forecasts 2017-2022
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Brazil Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2011-2016
- Table: Brazil Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Long Term Forecasts 2017-2022
- Table: Brazil Trade Data And Forecasts 2011-2016
- Table: Brazil Trade Data And Forecasts 2017-2022
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Brazil Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation And Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Brazil Power Projects Database
- Table: Brazil Major Projects - Power
- Operador Nacional do Sistema Eletrico (ONS)
- Tractebel Energia
- Latin America Regional Overview
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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