2012-10-24 13:42:37 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Brazil Retail Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

The Brazilian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Brazil's economic outlook of structural economic imbalances. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Brazilian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and slowing Chinese growth on the Brazilian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Brazilian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase

by a modest 12% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes first in BMI's LatAm Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Risk.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479385_brazil_retail_report_q4_2012.aspx


Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 62% between 2012 and 2016, from US$97.44bn to US$157.47bn. Hypermarkets and supermarkets have gradually taken market share from traditional stores in recent years, with the latter accounting for almost 63% of MGR sales in 2012.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the Growth Acceleration Programme, aimed at increasing infrastructure-related investment via tax incentives and large public and private investments. The planned measures, if successful, could ease retailers' logistical problems, which are mainly caused by poor road networks in many parts of the country.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI has revised down its 2012 headline real GDP growth figure for Brazil significantly, from 3.9% to 2.4%, as the real's break through multi-year trendline support on the monthly chart in May indicates to us that the country's structural economic imbalances, namely a very strong consumer and a weak manufacturing sector, are beginning to unwind sooner than we initially anticipated. Though massive fiscal and monetary stimulus may boost growth in late 2012, we believe a period of painful consumer deleveraging remains ahead, informing our below-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 3.7% for 2013.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Brazil Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Brazil Political SWOT
- Brazil Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Sectors, 2012f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Brazil's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Brazil Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (BRLbn)
- Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format - 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Brazil Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
- AV Devices
- Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Electronics Market
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Brazil Autos Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Sales
- Table: Brazil Autos Sales By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Production
- Table: Autos Production By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Autos Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Passenger Cars
- Table: Passenger Car Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Brazil - Passenger Car Sales 2010-2011
- New Investments
- Table: Passenger Car Production, 2009-2010
- Growth In Alternative Fuels
- Blaming The Government
- Company News
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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