2012-10-28 15:15:18 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Autos Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Sales in Bulgaria's auto market continue to be dominated by used units as the country's economy languishes with much of the region. Despite the limited outlook for new car sales in Bulgaria, a partnership between China's Great Wall and the local Litex Motors continues assembly at a new plant that has revived carmaking in the country. BMI expects output to come in at 27,000 units in 2012, with sales growing by 3.83% to 24,037 units.
New vehicle registrations in Bulgaria remained at an average 1,672 on a monthly basis in H112 - until May and June, when the average increased to 2,355. Nevertheless, new registrations in Bulgaria remain a far cry from the 34,458 and 42,870 seen in Greece and Romania
in H112 respectively. New registrations of all vehicles increased by 11.7% to 11,397 units in in the first half of 2012 against the same half in the previous year. Sales of passenger cars led the increase, marking a 12.2% climb to 9,871 units for the period. The much smaller segment for light commercial vehicles also increased by 8.5% to 1,526 units in H112.
Full Report Details at
Sales of used cars are understood to have increased by between 10% and 20% over the first six months of 2012, according to the Association of Automobile Importers. The organisation suggested that the spike in used car sales likely came as consumers eschewed leasing for new vehicles amid a relatively weak economic outlook. The most popular used units are those priced up to BGN20,000 (US$12,629) and between three and seven years old.
Indeed, performance in Bulgaria's auto sector will depend on the country's ability to resuscitate economic activity, although much of this is beyond its control. A pronounced weakness in external demand for Bulgarian exports and a larger concomitant slowdown in domestic demand, as export intensive industrial activity slows, mean we have revised down our 2012 and 2013 real GDP growth forecast to -0.1% and 1.6%, from a previous forecast of 0.6% and 1.9% respectively. The domestic banking sector's exposure to peripheral eurozone banks will restrict credit growth and continues to pose major downside risks to economic growth.
BMI expects both production - on the back of the Great Wall and Litex Motors joint venture - and sales to continue expanding in Bulgaria year-on-year (y-o-y) over the next few years. By 2016, BMI sees production growing by 3.5% to 32,618 units, while sales climb by a sharper 10.1% to 35,852 units.
Report Table of Contents:
- Bulgaria Auto Industry SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
- Table: Passenger Car Sales H112
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
- Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe , Q412
- Investments In Emerging Europe
- Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bulgaria Auto Production And Sales, 2009-2016
- Component Production
- Table: Component Production
- Commercial Vehicles
- Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble
- EPIQ Electronic Assembly
- Grammer JSC
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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