2014-04-03 07:31:02 - Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q2 2014 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Core Views Bulgaria´s economy will see growth accelerate in light of higher public spending and elevated export growth. However, elevated political risk will dampen fixed investment and household spending in the economy.
Political risk is threatening to undermine Bulgaria´s sovereign credentials, which could further derail the country´s convergence process with the EU and cloud the economic outlook over the coming years.
Stronger manufactured goods exports to Europe and the prospect of rising remittance flows following the lifting of travel restrictions in the EU for Bulgarian nationals informs our view that the current account is set to remain in surplus for the foreseeable future.
Bulgaria´s exchange rate peg to the euro will remain comfortably in place, as an internal devaluation has seen the economy
correct its external imbalances. A current account surplus and rising foreign reserves suggest that the peg faces few risks over the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes We revised up our current account surplus forecast from 0.7% of GDP to 2.1% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015 from our previous forecast of 0.5%.
We have raised our current account deficit forecast for 2011 to 8.0% of GDP from 6.6% previously on account of surging imports in the first half of the year, driven by loose monetary policy at home and higher global commodity prices.
Key Risks To Outlook We note that the near-term risks are to the downside, given the possibility of another early election this year and the ongoing legislative deadlock.
With economic growth set to accelerate over the coming quarters, our current projections for Bulgaria´s current account may be underestimating the prospect of stronger domestic demand and higher import growth over the course of 2014 and 2015.
Click for report details: www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Country-Guide/Bul ..
Browse all All Sectors Country Guide Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Country-Guide?aCo ..
Browse all All Sectors Company Profile Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All-Sectors/Company-Profile?a ..
Browse all Latest Country Guide Reports www.companiesandmarkets.com/Market/All/Country-Guide?aCode=f3fb3 ..
Companiesandmarkets.com is a leading online business information aggregator with over 300,000 market reports and company profiles available to our clients. Our extensive range of reports are sourced from the leading publishers of business information and provide clients with the widest range of information available. In terms of company profiles, Companiesandmarkets.comâs online database allows clients access to market and corporate information to over 100,000 different companies. We provide clients with a fully indexed database of information where clients can find specific market reports on their niche industry sectors of interest.