2012-01-30 13:50:05 -
New Construction research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: Double-digit contractions in the Bulgarian construction sector during H111 have done little to bolster our outlook for the Bulgarian infrastructure segment, and have damaged the chances of a potential recovery over the period 2011-2015. Although we anticipate that positive investor sentiment will return, we believe that sluggish private demand and the public sector's fiscal constraints will impede a robust recovery in the infrastructure segment.
* Bulgarian construction company Patnostroitelna Tehnika has been awarded two contracts for construction work along the Trakiya Motorway. The contracts are worth an estimated BGN25mn (US$17mn), with the initial BGN10.8mn (US$7.42mn) contract for the design and construction of lot IV of the motorway, between Yambol and Karnobat.
* The Bulgarian government published a list
of road improvement projects worth EUR9bn (US$12.5bn). The projects will be carried out between 2014 and 2020, and include the Sofia- Kalotina highway, the Kresna Gorge section of the Strouma highway, and the expansion of the Veliko Turnovo-Shoumen road. The EU will cover 80% of the construction costs.
* German bank BayernLB has announced it provided EUR17.965mn (US$24.5mn) for the construction of three solar power plants in Bulgaria. BayernLB's Bulgarian subsidiary MKB Unionbank has overseen the structuring and other aspects of the transaction.
Full Report Details at
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www.fastmr.com/prod/326850_bulgaria_infrastructure_report_q1_201 ..
We expect 2012 to pose significant challenges to the Bulgarian government, in particular to the ruling party GERB. The party will likely face high public discontent on the back of its failure to tangibly reduce corruption and gain entry to the Schengen visa-free travel zone, two key pillars of its election platform. Moreover, the deteriorating economic environment and rising ethnic tensions will further compound challenges facing the government. However, due to a weak opposition, we do not see GERB's power coming under serious threat in 2012, at this juncture.
We expect to see cost-push inflationary pressures continue to moderate going into 2012, as supply-side constraints on commodities unwind. We believe domestic demand-driven price pressures will strengthen through 2012, in line with our forecast for a recovery in the labour market and in household consumption.
We have revised down our forecast for Bulgaria's real GDP growth to come in at 2.5% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012, from 2.7% and 3.3% respectively. We believe that slower growth in the eurozone will filter through to a weaker recovery in domestic consumption and a lower contribution from net exports.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Market Overview
- Bulgaria
Building Materials
- Industry Trend Analysis - Building Materials: Asia And Latin America Demand Drive EM/Developed Market Divergence
- Europe Overview
- Industry Trend Analysis - Building Materials: Eastern Promise Drives 2011 Recovery
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
- Table: Bulgaria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
- Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Transport Infrastructure Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
- Table: Bulgaria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
- Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Bulgaria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
- Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
- Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview
Business Environment
- Bulgaria Business Environment
- Rewards
- Risks
- Regional Overview
- Eastern Europe Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Industry Trend Analysis - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings: CEE Bouncing Back, But Added Risks From Global Headwinds
- Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Monitor
- Glavbolgarstroy
- Mott MacDonald
Global Overview
- Infrastructure Finance In 2012: Deja Vu?
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
- New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
- Construction
- Capital Investment
- Construction Sector Employment
- Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings
- Table: Design And Construction Phase
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
- Sources
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