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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2014 - New Market Study Published

New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2014" 2014-03-18 14:02:54
We forecast only modest growth in Bulgarian household spending to 2018. Although Bulgaria's fairly immature retail market provides plenty of room for 'catch up' growth, a lacklustre macroeconomic growth outlook and - more pertinently - serious demographic weakness impede a more positive growth forecast.

While rising household incomes will help grow the market for non-essential retail items over our current forecast period and beyond, low existing spending levels, uninspiring growth prospects by emerging market standards and a weak investment climate all contribute to Bulgaria's last place ranking in BMI's Retail Risk/ Reward Ratings for the emerging Europe region.

A key challenge facing retail investors in Bulgaria is the country's still-strong independent retail sector. This forces the organised retail sector to be highly price sensitive to compete and drives down overall spending growth prospects. The country's ageing population - with this demographic a key customer for more independent retail channels - suggests that we will not see the erosion of traditional retail in Bulgaria anytime soon. This, coupled with the obvious demographic challenge of a declining population, also informs our only modest growth outlook for the sector.

Full Report Details at

Key BMI Forecasts

* Total household spending in Bulgaria is forecast to increase by 11.8% to US$37bn in 2018.
* We expect household goods expenditure to witness the strongest growth over this forecast period, expanding by 22.6%, with spending on household appliances the primary driver.
* Food and beverage spending will experience the most modest growth, expanding by only 4.2%, as strong competition from the traditional retail sector limits customer numbers and keeps prices low.
* We forecast Bulgaria's population to decline by 3.9% to 6.94mn by 2018, with household numbers dropping by a very significant 6.3%. These demographic challenges will weigh very heavily on the retail sector.
* However, household incomes will grow with the number of Bulgarian households earning US$10,000 or more as a percent of the total rising from 15.6% in 2013 to 27.0% by 2018.
* With a score of just 40.4 out of 100, Bulgaria is comfortably in last place in BMI's Retail Risk/Reward Ratings for emerging Europe, with the average rating for the region being 50.4.
* In the 10 years to 2011, Bulgarian real GDP growth averaged 4.1%; over the next 10 years, we expect growth to average just 3.0%.

Report Table of Contents:

The table of contents for this report is available upon request.

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Press Information

Published by
Bill Thompson

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