2012-10-26 14:34:34 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bulgaria Shipping Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
The port of Varna is set to slow down its growth in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2012 after demonstrating impressive dynamics in 2011.
As macroeconomic climate worsens, with Bulgaria projected to post negative growth for the year and country's exports to eurozone exposed to the latter's economic woes, throughput levels at the country's main maritime gateway are expected to slow, also affected by extreme weather conditions at the start of the year.
Over the medium term we project more pronounced growth at the port of Varna as the growth picks in Bulgaria and in eurozone.
Headline Industry Data
* 2012 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2%, over the medium term we project an 18% increase.
* 2012 port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 1%, over the medium term we project a 24% increase.
* 2012 total trade growth forecast at 1.55%.
Key Industry Trends
River Takes Larger Stake but Modernisation Required
Full Report Details at
Bulgaria is planning to launch a tender for the 35-year concession of one of its Danube River ports, the Vidin-South port terminal. BMI highlights that Bulgaria is increasing its use of its waterways and to diversify into this mode further requires its river ports to be modernised.
Risks to Outlook
In the short term, the risk for the port of Varna's throughput is to the downside, the closure of the port for part of February due to icy conditions will have in BMI's view interrupted operations and will have had a negative impact on throughput. We also highlight the downside risk attached to a deepening in the eurozone crisis. Currently, a projected recession in the eurozone will lead to a projected slowing in throughput growth at Bulgaria's ports in 2012. A steeper decline in the eurozone would have a negative impact on throughput, however, with about 60% of the country's exports heading to the EU.
Over the medium term, we highlight the entry of a private port operator in Bulgaria would offer upside risk to our forecasts, but as we have highlighted there is little to attract a potential investor to the country's port sector at present.
Report Table of Contents:
- Bulgaria Shipping SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview - Container Shipping
- More Positive Box Outlook In H212
- Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens
- Concerted Rate Push Must Continue
- Bunker Price Still A Worry
- 2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation
- Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping
- Overcapacity A Long Term Problem
- Bankruptcies To Continue
- Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown
- Protectionism Trend Takes Off
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude
- Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed
- Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates
- Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl)
- Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping
- Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators
- Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs
- Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects
- Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Bulgaria Container Shipping Market Overview
- Port Of Varna Throughput Overview
- Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
Bulgaria Demographic Outlook
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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