2013-08-30 08:58:34 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Bulgarian market had a mixed 2012, with mobile subscriptions continuing to increase even at penetration rates in excess of 165%, but monthly blended ARPU declined rapidly. We believe this pattern was the result of aggressive promotional activities by operators to retain existing customers and attract new ones. The pattern of subscription growth and price pressures is forecast to continue, driven by competition and regulatory policies such as MTR reduction. However, this trend will be less pronounced than in 2012 as operators face up to the reality of having to maintain margins. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat about the broadband sector, which we expect to benefit from strong investments, next generation access networks and increasing take-up of internet-based services, such as
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670615_bulgaria_telecommunications_report_q4 ..
* Mobile ARPU continued to fall in Q113 after declining by 25.3% in 2012, with the market share weighted average falling to BGN10.3 in Q412. Price competition and cuts to mobile termination rates were the most important factors contributing to this sharp fall.
* The mobile sector grew contracted by 67,000 subscriptions in Q113 as market leader Mobitel reported a net loss of 172,000 subscriptions due to inactive subscription discounting.
* We revised our broadband market forecast in the Q4 2013 update, and now estimate a total of 1.9mn broadband subscriptions at the end of 2012, up by 29.5% over the year.
Key Trends And Developments
In July 2013 the European Commission approved the acquisition of Cosmo Bulgaria Mobile (Cosmote) and integrated retailer Germanos from OTE by Norwegian telecoms group Telenor. Telenor agreed the acquisition for EUR717mn (US$946mn) in May 2013, beating interest from Turkcell, Turk Telekom and Deutsche Telekom. The deal is expected to yield greater opportunities for Telenor to engage in regional cross-border collaboration with its operations in Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro; increase operational efficiencies; and address untapped demand for mobile value-added services, including mobile broadband and internet access.
Telenor is set to face new competition from a fourth operator at its new acquisition. A mobile licence was awarded to satellite operator Bulsatcom in January 2013, and the new licensee intends to launch commercial services before the end of 2013, a development we expect to increase the downward pressure on operators' ARPUs and operating margins in future, as well as erode the market shares of the existing players. We expect Bulsatcom to pursue a value-led strategy in its bid to get a foothold in the market, bundling its mobile services with its existing satellite broadband and TV services.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU (BGN) - Historical Data & Forecast
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q413
- Table: Bulgaria Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2012
- Mobile Growth
- Table: Bulgaria Mobile Market, 2011-2013
- Subscriber Mix
- Usage (ARPU/MOU)
- Table: Bulgaria Mobile Market Overview
- Table: Mobiltel
- Table: Globul
- Table: Vivacom
- Fixed Line
- Table: Wireline Developments (2010-2012)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities
- Regulatory Developments
- Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators
- Mobiltel (M-Tel)
- Financial Performance
- Table: Vendor Revenue Comparisons (US$mn)
- Restructuring Efforts
- Geographical Breakdown
- Table: Net Sales By Geography (EURmn)
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Bulgaria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Bulgaria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Bulgaria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
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