2012-11-14 22:26:54 - Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Real GDP growth in Cameroon will climb above the 3.3% long-run trend for the next few years on the back of investment in several new mega-projects and increased oil production. Longer run growth remains constrained by a very poor business environment which the government appears to have little interest in reforming. Political stability is likely to persist unless the ageing Paul Biya unexpectedly exits the presidency.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our real GDP growth forecast to 4.7% in 2012, and down to 5.2% in 2013, on the back of new historic data. Lower oil prices have led us to project wider deficits in the current account and budget.

Key Risks To Outlook

There are upside risks to the production

 

 

of oil this year, which could potentially reach 100,000 barrels per day, which would boost headline real GDP growth, and narrow deficits in the current account and budget. A fiercer than anticipated economic downturn in the European Union or China could have a negative impact on commodity prices, adversely impacting Cameroon´s balance of payments.

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