2013-02-20 05:25:04 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Cameroon Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: While the near-term oil production outlook is somewhat uncertain, there are projects capable of halting the recent decline and delivering modest volume growth over the medium-to-long term. Meanwhile, more efficient usage of associated gas, through the limitation of flaring and the development of domestic resources, offers prospects for sustainable growth in the upstream gas segment, with potential output available for domestic use, power generation and eventually for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The main trends and developments we highlight for Cameroon's oil and gas sector are as follows:

* BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular over the next decade with output of an estimated 63,470 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, peaking at 87,300b/d

in 2015 before falling back to 77,700b/d in 2021. This uncertain growth outlook is based on a small number of modest new projects capable of offsetting only temporarily the underlying decline of older fields.
* The Cameroon government has assumed that domestic oil production will average nearly 79,000b/d in 2013. UK-based energy firm Bowleven announced in October 2012 that oil production at its Etinde project in Cameroon is likely to begin in 2015 rather than 2013, as was previously stated.
* Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 5.6% from 2011 to 2021. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 28,900b/d in 2012, to hit 46,500b/d by 2021.
* BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.03bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 5.78bcm by 2021, as the country reduces the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects, such as the Victoria Oil and Gas Logbaba scheme. Gas output growth provides export prospects, notably in the form of LNG as suggested by the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi.
* Bowleven has applied formally to the government for permission to start extracting gas. The company said it will make an investment decision in the second half of 2013, with the first gas from the MLHP-7 block on the Etinde permit expected to be produced in 2016.
* Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 21.1% on the back of numerous infrastructure projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150 megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.03bcm in 2011 to 0.18bcm by 2020/21.
* In the downstream sector, the government has ambitious plans to expand capacity at Societe Nationale de Raffinage (SONARA), the country's only refinery located in Cape Limboh, from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d; and to upgrade the facility so that it will be able to process the heavy crude oil that is produced in Cameroon, and not simply imported light grades.
* The government has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with US-based International Refinery Consultants (IRC) to build a new oil refinery in the country. The IRC will conduct extensive studies for building the high-capacity Cameroon Atlantic Refinery Project in Kribi. Initially, the refinery will produce at least 200,000b/d of oil and could be expanded to 350,000b/d in the next few years.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536416_cameroon_oil_gas_report_q1_2013.aspx


Cameroon's dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we forecast OPEC basket oil prices to remain elevated and average US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) in 2012, a figure similar to the 2011 average of US$107.52/bbl.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Cameroon Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data
- Table: Cameroon Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data
- Oil Supply and Demand
- Table: Cameroon Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports
- Table: Cameroon Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports
- Gas Supply and Demand
- Table: Cameroon Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports
- Table: Cameroon Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Cameroon Refining - Production and Consumption
- Table: Cameroon Refining - Production and Consumption
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Cameroon Risk Reward Ratings
- Regional Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
- Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
Market Overview
- Cameroon Energy Market Overview
- Table: Upstream Projects Database
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Cameroon
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players - Cameroon Energy Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
- Perenco
- Other Companies - Summary
- Victoria Oil & Gas - Summary
- Sterling Energy - Summary
- Petronas - Summary
- Noble Energy - Summary
- Bowleven Oil And Gas - Summary
- Kosmos Energy - Summary
- Addax - Summary
- Dana Petroleum - Summary
Regional Overview
Global Market Views
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
- Inflection point
- New Frontiers In Production
Appendix
- Africa - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=536416&dt=t

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