2013-02-19 10:07:28 - New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The Canadian economy faces major external headwinds, but should avoid falling into recession. The mix of growth will continue to shift away from private consumption as household balance sheets remain under pressure.
Still-high global commodity prices will support Canada's terms of trade. With a strong Canadian dollar and low interest rates, business investment will be a major driver of growth, though the trade balance will remain in deficit.
Among developed states, and in stark contrast to the neighbouring US, Canada has an enviable fiscal record. We see very limited risk of a Canadian fiscal crisis and, in fact, see debt ratios declining from this year onwards, with the budget returning to surplus by the end of the forecast period in 2017.
Risks To Outlook
Downside Risks To Growth: A collapse of the European monetary union would send shock waves through global trade and financial markets. A hard economic landing in China would lower demand for commodities, damaging Canada's terms of trade. Weakness in the domestic real estate market also poses a threat.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536349_canada_business_forecast_report_q2_20 ..
Downside Risks To Long-Term Forecast: The major historic weakness of Canadian economic growth has been low productivity. Although we expect a pick-up in private investment in the near future, without a structural improvement in business investment and key national industries, average GDP growth to 2022 could be closer to 2.0% than the 2.3-2.4% that we expect.
Report Table of Contents:
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Resource Nationalism In Focus
- Foreign state-owned companies' investment in Canada's booming resource extraction sectors is in the spotlight, with the federal government reluctantly approving two major takeovers in December 2012 and introducing strict new guidelines for future acquisitions.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Strong Foundation, But Some Challenges From Within
- Canada has one of the highest long-term political ratings in the world, reflecting its history of stable governance and strong institutions. Nevertheless, Canada faces political challenges over the coming decade, including a potential shift in power from east to west.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
- With household consumption remaining subdued and the residential construction sector due for a correction, we continue to forecast overall economic weakness in the coming quarters. Our real GDP growth estimates remain 2.0% for 2012 and 1.9% for 2013, with a rebound to 2.5% in 2014.
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, REAL GROWTH %
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
BoC To Remain On The Sidelines Until 2014
- Low inflation, a strong Canadian dollar and a weakening real estate market suggest that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain rates at current levels for several quarters yet. We stll project the BoC's benchmark overnight rate will end 2013 at its current level of 1.00%, and only beginning to rise in 2014, to a year-end level of 1.75%.
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Chapter 3: Key Sectors
TABLE: WHEAT PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: CORN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: BARLEY PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: POULTRY PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: PORK PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: BEEF & VEAL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: MILK PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: BUTTER PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: CHEESE PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2012-2017
TABLE: CANADA PETROCHEMICALS FORECASTS, 2010-2017
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: DEFENCE AND SECURITY SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TBALE: TELECOMS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FREIGHT SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Growth May Be Turning The Corner
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.