2014-04-11 22:11:01 - Global Economic Tracker -- Insights and Trends (GET-IT) North America Quarter 4, 2013 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
US growth, affected by the difference of opinion between the ruling party and the opposition regarding fiscal policies, lowered demand for Canadian exports, which in turn affected Canada´s attempt to regain economic balance in 2013. Canada´s aim to transform itself to an export-led economy will probably be delayed until H1 2014.
The surge in North American energy production (oil sands in Canada and shale gas in the US) is expected to boost industrial production by lowering electricity prices and transportation costs H2 2013 onwards. European recession and sluggish growth in China could lower export demand for the region in the next two quarters. Growth in the region depends on foreign investments and trade treaties with the European Union and China H2
Positive business sentiment is expected to increase during 2013-2014, due to the energy sector´s support for increasing employment, and the recovery in housing activities. Canadian growth is expected to recover, albeit gradually, due to resilient consumer and housing demand and favorable exports and business sentiment. A stronger recovery than the previous year´s is expected during 2014-2015, due to global growth and as the US is showing signs of economic recovery.
Elevated political and economic uncertainty along with higher longer-term borrowing costs led to some loss of US economic momentum in H2 2013. However, as fiscal strains ease, repressed demand and strong household and corporate finances are expected to reinforce a faster recovery.
In H2 2013, recession in Europe and dampened Chinese growth produced a negative impact on the Canadian economy by lowering export demand. The Canadian economy is transitioning to an export-driven one, but this is occurring gradually due to the weak US economy and is slated to continue up to 2014.
The outlook for manufacturing is promising in H2 2013 and beyond in the light of an improving global scenario and US fiscal consensus. Low natural gas prices and recovery in the US housing market are likely to boost the chemical industry´s output growth in H1 2014. The manufacturing sector is expected to exhibit consistent growth H2 2013 onwards, with growth being driven by the automotive sector in the US, and an increase in manufacturing exports in Canada.Significant foreign investments in US tight oil and shale gas exploration and extraction are also expected in the next few years.
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