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Central America Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - New Market Research Report

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2014-01-05 20:46:59 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Central America Business Forecast Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology

Composite Rating

The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.

Political Ratings

The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?

Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?

Full Report Details at
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Economy Ratings

The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.

Business Environment Rating

The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.

Report Table of Contents:

BMi risk ratings - central america
Latin america - ratings League tables
executive summary
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risk to outlook
political outlook - regional
sWot analysis
political outlook
central america: 2014 election outlook
taBLe: presiDentiaL eLection scHeDuLe
Long- term political outlook
central america Facing continued challenges to political stability
economic outlook - regional
sWot analysis
economic activity
output and exports to recover slowly after rust
taBLe: coFFee proDuction & consu Mption
sovereign risk ratings
credit Deterioration Has Largely run its course
taBLe: Latin aMerica soVereiGn ris K ratinGs - eVoLution oF aBiLity to pay
taBLe: Latin aMerica soVereiGn ris K ratinGs - eVoLution oF Wi LLinGness to pay
investment climate
political risk advantage Favours panama and costa rica infrastructure
chapter 1.1: political outlook - costa rica
Domestic politics
Weakening social stability Weighs on political risk rating
chapter 1.2: economic outlook - costa rica
economic activity
Fiscal Balance to continue Deteriorating
taBLe: Fisca L poLicy
chapter 2.1: political outlook - el salvador
Domestic politics
proposed Fiscal reforms to Keep political risk elevated
chapter 2.2: economic outlook - el salvador
economic activitys
Levelling Growth poses risk to Forecasts, But Better times ahead
taBLe: econoMic actiVity
chapter 3.1: political outlook - Guatemala
Domestic politics
indigenous activism signals Further tensions ahead
chapter 3.2: economic outlook - Guatemala
economic activity
overall interest rate View intact, Despite surprise cut
taBLe: M onetary poLicy
chapter 4.1: political outlook - Honduras
Domestic politics
Hernandez appears Victorious, But political risk still elevated
chapter 4.2: economic outlook - Honduras
Balance of payments
Modest improvement in current account shortfall ahead
taBLe: current account
chapter 5.1: political outlook - nicaragua
Domestic politics
constitutional reforms to Have Long-term policy implications
chapter 5.2: economic outlook - nicaragua
economic activity
Fiscal consolidation set to continue in 2014
taBLe: Fisca L poLicy
chapter 6.1: political outlook - panama
Domestic politics
arias Victory Looking increasingly Likely in 2014
chapter 6.2: economic outlook - panama
economic activity
Weak exports to Drive Wider current account shortfall
taBLe: current account
chapter 7: BMi Global assumptions
Global outlook
Mixed Q313 Data, But outlook Has not changed
taBLe: GLoBaL assuMptions
taBLe: DeVeLopeD states, reaL GD p Gro WtH, %
taBLe: BM i V ersus BL ooMBerG consensus reaL GDp GroWtH Forecasts, %
taBLe: eMerGinG Mar Kets, reaL GD p Gro WtH, %

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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