2014-02-07 17:53:01 - Chile Freight Transport Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
We are revising down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast for Chile to 4.2%, from 4.6% previously, as the country´s H113 economic performance has reinforced our conviction that lower commodities prices and weakening external demand for industrial metals will weigh on Chile´s economy over a multi-year timeframe. Indeed, real GDP growth in Chile came in at 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first half of 2013, directly in line with our forecast for annual headline growth of the same figure, which would mark a drop from average expansion of 5.7% from 2010-2012, during the Chinese investment-led bull-run in global commodities.
Lower copper prices will place renewed importance on shifting away from export- and investment-led growth to a more diversified economic growth trajectory,
one that is more reliant on private consumption. If private consumption takes an increased share of Chile´s economy, we may see increased growth in air freight, as well as in maritime container volumes, as both freight modes are used to carry consumer goods.
Rail freight, however, will be hit hard by a move away from mining, as will gross tonnage volumes at Chilean ports.
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