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China expected to become the second-largest market for high-speed transmission after US
Global Market Analysis for High-Speed (8/9/10) Transmissions - a new market research report on 2014-04-30 10:04:02
North America and China are expected to be the most attractive high-speed transmission markets by 2020. Globally, 8-speed ATs are expected to dominate the market. The 9-speed ATs are expected to follow. Globally, General Motors is expected to lead the market in terms of unit shipments by 2020, followed by Toyota and Ford.
High-speed transmissions are expected to be a key offering by all premium OEMs, including BMW, Daimler, Audi, Lexus, JLR and Volvo. BMW and Daimler are expected to lead, among these OEMs. North America is expected to be the largest market for high-speed transmissions. By 2020, much of the transmission market is expected to be high speed.
9-speed ATs are expected to account for most of the market share in North America. This is primarily due to the adoption of 9-speed ATs by high-volume original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for their forward-wheel drive (FWD) vehicle applications. North America is also expected to have the highest volumes for 10-speed AT transmissions globally, due to the expected uptake of these on rear-wheel drive (RWD) vehicles and the pick-up segment such as the F-150 and RAM 1500.
The ´Big 3´, namely, General Motors, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler, are expected to lead the market towards 2020, with sales of over 1 million each. . The high-speed DCT segment is expected to be the largest globally. By 2020, 8- and 9-speed ATs are expected to be equally paced, although 9-speed ATs are likely to have some advantage. This is primarily due to the adoption of high-speed transmission technology by premium OEMs including Daimler, JLR and BMW.
Premium OEMs, including BMW, Daimler and Audi, are expected to account for the majority market share by 2020. China is expected to become the second-largest market for high-speed transmissions. A competitive AT market share in Japan is expected to augment the growth of high-speed transmissions in the market.
The 8-speed ATs are expected to be the dominant high-speed transmission technology by 2020 in China and Japan. In China, this is because of the adoption of 8-speeds ATs by premium OEMs, whereas in Japan it is due to Toyota´s dominance and the adoption of the 8-speed FWD and RWD Aisin transmission. The positive adoption of DCTs in China is expected to augment the growth of the high-speed DCT segment.
Globally, from the perspective of tier-1 suppliers as opposed to in-house manufacturing, ZF and Aisin are expected to lead the market by 2020. Aisin is expected to be the market leader in Japan, whereas ZF will probably lead in all other markets. A number of OEMs, including Hyundai, Daimler, Ford and GM, are focusing on in-house high-speed transmission manufacturing. This is because it is considered a core competence and a key pillar of the engine and overall powertrain strategy.

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