2012-10-24 16:26:04 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "China Freight Transport Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Chinese freight transport sector, highlighting that indicators continue to align to back our view of a slowdown in China's economic growth. There is growing evidence that the economy is close to contraction. We do not expect a recovery any time soon, as structural forces will keep growth relatively weak and highly susceptible to negative shocks. We forecast headline real GDP growth to come in at 7.5% and 7.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Data for the first four months of the year show volumes in air freight and inland waterways in line with our macro view.

These monthly results support our view that a noticeable slowdown in Chinese economic growth is set to come

into effect during our forecast period. Our core view on Chinese growth is that we are past the boom phase and we are entering a period of much weaker expansion. The slowdown in the construction sector will result in less demand for imports of goods such as iron ore and coal, while ports and shipping lines alike are feeling the effects of a gradual contraction in China's overseas trade volumes over our midterm forecast period. Although this moderation in growth is expected to be soft, concerns over the possibility of a sharper contraction in Chinese bilateral trade adds a degree of downside risk to our projections.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479401_china_freight_transport_report_q4_201 ..


Headline Industry Data

* 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to contract by 3.0%.
* 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.7%.
* 2012 Port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 5.2%.
* 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 6.0%.

Key Industry Trends

Air China Cargo Chasing Growth In Intra-Asia

The trend of interest from major freight companies in the intra-Asia market, first noted in the container shipping sector, is now picking up pace in the air cargo market. Air China Cargo, the freight subsidiary of Air China, is reportedly preparing to launch a cargo service linking China with Vietnam, the airline's second cargo venture into Asia in 2012.

Chinese Railways Still In Trouble

Despite the upbeat headlines, Beijing's decision to boost its railway construction spending target by 14% in 2012 to CNY470bn should not be regarded as aggressive stimulus. On the contrary, the decision to turn attention back towards a sector already plagued by overcapacity, massive debt levels and poor earnings prospects is a clear sign to us that there are precious few fresh options at the government's disposal to reignite economic activity this time around.

Vale Navigates China Problem With Storage Vessel

BMI believes that the decision by Vale to introduce a second iron ore storage vessel into its fleet signals a forced revisit to the company's shipping strategy following the ruling by Chinese authorities prohibiting Valemax vessels from calling at Chinese ports. The firm must now pursue alternative uses for its new fleet of dry bulk vessels, which in turn may allow it to gain a foothold in iron ore markets beyond China, and alleviate some of its reliance on the country's iron ore demand.

Risks To Outlook

Risks to China's freight transport sector are primarily to the downside, with our growth projections for all modes contingent on the strength of the country's international trade volumes. The increasingly bearish outlook for the US consumer threatens to dampen the country's demand for Chinese imports, which will in turn slow down China's economic growth. Any slowdown in the Asian country's economy will result in a slowdown in Chinese demand for raw material imports, leaving its freight transport sector with weakened volumes.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
- Air Freight
- Rail Freight
- Maritime Freight
Market Overview
Industry Forecast
- Air
- Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016
- Maritime
- Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes)
- Rail
- Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016
- Road
- Table: Road Freight, 2009-2016
- Inland Waterways
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2009-2016
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: China's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: China's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Profiles
- Jade Cargo International
- China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRCTC)
- Daqin Railway Company
- CR Intermodal
- Sinotrans Group
- China Southern (Cargo)
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources

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