2012-06-30 04:07:06 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "China Infrastructure Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: We maintain our forecasts for a deceleration in growth in the Chinese infrastructure and construction segments over 2012, with an increasing number of indicators validating our view. While government murmurs of a small infrastructure stimulus have not gone unnoticed, the swollen local government debt from the first stimulus is making new credit allocations a precarious and prohibitive venture.

Key developments in China's infrastructure sector include:

* We maintain our muted forecasts for railways and expect to see a deceleration in industry value growth starting in 2012 and running to the end of our forecast period in 2021. New data from the Ministry of Railways corroborates this view, indicating a steep unwinding of spending.
* Our forecasts for a revival

in airport construction are supported by the announcement of a new mega-airport project - to replace the Beijing Nanyuan Airport - should be completed by 2017.
* In the housing sector, the government has pledged the construction of another 50mn low cost housing units between 2011 and 2014. While this will drive construction, our concerns over the ability of indebted local governments to meet their share of the funding requirements mean we see risks to the timely implementation of the ambitious scheme.
* In addition to the persistent unwinding of fixed asset investments growth, the production pattern of building materials also suggests a downtrend. We forecast that cement production and consumption growth will be markedly lower in 2012 and 2013, continuing its downtrend from 2011.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/404172_china_infrastructure_report_q3_2012.a ..


China offers scale - measured in terms of total construction industry value - and high levels of growth, combined with a high level of capital investment as a percentage of GDP. The combination of these three factors plays strongly in China's favour in our infrastructure risk/reward ratings. However, the strength of its infrastructure market often masks the high barriers to entry, the opaque regulatory and legal framework and the uncompetitive environment, which have shaved points from the country's overall ratings. Consequently, we have revised down the component scores in these categories. In BMI's Infrastructure risk/reward ratings, China scores 65 out of 100, with its strong infrastructure market propelling it near the top of the regional table.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Infrastructure SWOT
Market Overview
- Competitive Landscape
- Table:
Building Materials
- Global
- Asia
- Cement Forecasts
- Table: China Cement Production and Consumption Data
- Table: China Cement Production and Consumption Data
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: China Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: China Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
- Table: China Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: China Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
- Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Key Projects - Transport
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
- Table: China Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: China Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Key Projects - Energy And Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: china Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
- Table: China Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
- Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Key Projects - Residential/Non Residential Construction
Risk/Reward Ratings
- China Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
- Regional Overview
- Asia Pacific Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: China, India, Indonesia - BMI Interest Rate Views
- Table: Emerging South East Asia - BMI Interest Rate Views
- Table: Nearly Developed Asia - Bmi Interest Rate Views
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Monitor
- Sinohydro
- China Communications Construction
- Shanghai Construction Group (SCG)
- China Railway Group
- China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
Global Overview
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
- New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
- Construction
- Capital Investment
- Construction Sector Employment
- Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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