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"China Mining Report Q1 2014" Published

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2013-12-05 20:08:28 - New Materials research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

The cooling of China's feverish growth is threatening to turn a decade-long mining boom into bust for many domestic miners. With cost containment being key in the face of falling commodity prices, Chinese miners will be forced to recalibrate their investment approach over the coming quarters. While state-owned mines are generally more insulated from the weakness in commodities prices, the Chinese government's gradual embrace of free market economics should pave the way for some much needed consolidation and restructuring in the mining industry.

The transitioning of China's economic growth model from fixed-asset investment to private consumption will create ripple effects across the resource extractive industry. With mineral prices on course to trend lower over the coming quarters, the cooling of China's

feverish growth is threatening to turn a decade-long mining boom into bust for many domestic miners. We forecast the country's mining industry to grow at an annual average rate of 5.6% between 2013 and 2017, a sharp slowdown from a growth rate of 17.7% over the previous five years.

Full Report Details at

As 2014 ushers in the fourth year of China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), we expect the changes and reforms enacted in 2013 to continue. In a bid to curb overcapacity and reduce environmental pollution, the government plans to close smaller and less efficient mines, while mid-sized mines will be merged and production consolidated into giant, vertically integrated state-owned outfits. The small production losses that will inevitably occur with the closure of smaller mines will give way to production gains down the road due to the efficiency gains of bigger, more integrated mining companies.

We expect increasing tax burdens on the Chinese mining industry over the coming years. As evidenced by recent policy measures, China is becoming increasingly concerned about the problem of environmental pollution, especially from the coal sector. Domestic miners are set to come under greater pressure from the string of taxes and environmental regulations introduced by the government over the past quarters. Crucially, Beijing's reform-minded new leaders are considering a heavier dose of deep structural reforms to tackle the problems of overcapacity in the heavy industry. While easy financing and cheap energy supplies have previously helped to shore up operations at many loss-making steel mills, the decades of blind expansion and unsustainable practices in the steel sector are fast approaching an end. There is a growing realisation amongst the Chinese new leaders that free market economics should play a role in ending the capacity glut in many industries.

Key domestic players include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Jiangxi Copper, Datong Coal and Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals, as well as the state-owned entities Aluminium Corporation of China (Chinalco) and China Shenhua Energy. Foreign companies with operations in China include Canadian junior gold explorers Eldorado Gold and Continental Minerals; Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton and Brazilian diversified miner Vale.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
- Bauxite: Supply Security To Spur Growth
- Table: China - Bauxite Production Forecast
- Coal: Production Undeterred By Green Initiatives
- Table: China - Coal Projects
- Table: China - Coal Production Forecast
- Copper: Supported By Drive Towards Self-Sufficiency
- Table: China - Select Copper Projects
- Table: China - Copper Production Forecast
- Gold: Growth To Continue On Robust Appetite
- Table: China - Largest Gold Projects
- Table: China - Gold Production Forecast
- Iron Ore: Growth To Lose Momentum
- Table: China - Select Iron Ore Projects
- Table: China - Iron Ore Production Forecast
- Lead: Autos Sector To Lend Support
- Table: China - Select Lead Projects
- Table: China - Lead Production Forecast
- Nickel: Digging Slower As China Rebalances
- Table: China - Select Nickel Projects
- Table: China - Nickel Production Forecast
- Tin: Pushing Higher, With Risks To Downside
- Table: China - Tin Production Forecast
- Zinc: Little Impetus For Expansion
- Table: China - Zinc Production Forecast
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Table: China - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
Regulatory Development
- Table: Political Overview
Commodities Forecast
- Commodity Strategy
- Aluminium: Small Rebound
- Copper: Sideways Trading To Give Way
- Nickel: Still No Relief
- Zinc: Short-Term Strength
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: Global Commodities Strategy
Competitive Landscape
- Table: China - Select Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
- Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)
- Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
- China Shenhua Energy
- Table: Shenhua Energy - Key Financial Data
- Jiangxi Copper
- Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data
- Shandong Gold
- Table: Shandong Gold - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Downturn To Continue Into 2014
- 1. China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation
- 2. Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging
- 3. Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook
- But Opportunities Still Exist

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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