2013-03-14 10:44:53 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "China Power Report Q2 2013"
BMI View: Although leading economic indicators have stabilised, hopes of a sustainable V-shaped recovery in China are likely to be dashed in 2013. Total new liquidity in China surged to an all-time high in January, suggesting the current economic rebound is likely to continue over the coming months, and our Country Risks analysts continue to forecast economic growth slowing sharply in H213. In light of this, and taking into account a variety of sector-specific indicators, we maintain our relatively bearish sentiment towards growth in power consumption over the short term. Similarly, the substantial emphasis on conservation showed in China's new energy white paper suggests that the time for double-digit consumption growth might is at an end. That said, the Chinese
endeavour to raise the proportion of clean energy, coupled with its effort to support domestic manufacturers, suggests that the renewable energy and gas segments will see sustained growth. In addition, news that a nuclear reactor being developed by China - the CAP1400 - will be ready for export in 2013 bodes well for sector growth.
Full Report Details at
Aside from short-term considerations, and whilst it should be kept in mind that China will remain in a league of its own, macroeconomic and sector-specific factors also point to an equally moderate long-term outlook. In particular, we highlight that while the energy white paper published in October 2012 should not be taken at face value, the substantial emphasis it puts on conservation, energy efficiency and emissions reduction is certainly significant, and could influence the electricity markets.
The most significant trends and developments in the market are:
* In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation in the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas and China intensifies its efforts in prospecting and exploitation of conventional oil and gas resources. This is a point largely addressed in the country's energy policy 2012.
* That said, various new technologies are set to grow steadily over the coming years. This not only includes nuclear and hydro, but also non-hydro renewable sources, with China remaining an attractive renewables market globally. More specifically, China boasts abundant hydropower resources, and the country aims to reach 290 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity by 2015.
* Similarly, the country is targeting 40GW of nuclear installed capacity by 2015. At present, nuclear power only accounts for about 2% of China's total power generation, but the industry is set to see massive growth. On October 24 2012, a modified approach to nuclear power construction was outlined at a State Council meeting, signalling that approvals for new plants could recommence. Construction of 25 reactors continued following the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, and two of these are now online.
* The transmission and distribution (T&D) sector is also expected to attract significant attention over the coming years as plans to develop ultra-high voltage power transmission lines and smart grids materialise.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- China Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- China Power Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: China Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: China Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Table: China Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: China Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- China Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- China Power Projects Database
- Table: Major Projects - Power
- Huaneng Power International
- China Huaneng Group
- China Datang Corporation
- China Huadian Corporation
- China Guodian Corporation
- China Power Investment Corporation
- China Southern Power Grid
- State Grid Corporation
- Huaneng Power International
- Asia Regional Overview
- Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
- Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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