2012-10-24 16:26:02 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "China Power Report Q4 2012"
BMI View: Data released by China's State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) reconfirms our view of the Chinese power sector, with total power consumption having grown by just 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H112. With GDP figures supporting our long-held view that full-year expansion for 2012 will come in below 8.0%, we remain of the opinion that there will be a deceleration in power consumption and generation. However, we note that the projects pipeline - supported by long-term expectations and the government's commitment - looks healthy, and we also note that the sector could benefit from an increase in hydropower generation, brought on by strong precipitations.
China's Q212 headline GDP growth figure pointed to an intensification in the downtrend in China's GDP growth
in 2012. The indicator came in at 7.6% y-o-y, versus consensus expectations of 7.7% and a Q112 figure of 8.1%. This trend is further supported by a significant slowdown in power generation and consumption - a pertinent barometer of economic activity. Power consumption growth slumped significantly in H112, with total power consumption reaching just 2,374TWh, dragged down by a sharp decline in power usage by energy intensive industries, according to SERC. Although total electricity consumption was up by a healthy 5.5% y-o-y in H112, the growth rate was down 6.7 percentage points from the same period in 2011.
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Aside from this expected deceleration in 2012, long-term growth in power generation and consumption is also expected to moderate, as energy intensity declines. That said, China's overall electricity generation and consumption levels will remain considerable and in a league of their own:
* Significant investment in new capacity will still be of paramount importance to the country's power sector - an outlook that finds further support in the forecasts made by BMI's infrastructure analysts.
* The transmission and distribution (T&D) sector is also expected to attract significant attention over the coming years as plans to develop ultra-high voltage power transmission lines and smart grids start to materialise.
* In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources are expected to continue to dominate electricity generation in the coming years, as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas. However, various new technologies are set to grow steadily over the coming years. This not only includes gas and nuclear, but also non-hydro renewable sources, with China remaining one of the most attractive renewables markets in Asia.
Report Table of Contents:
- China Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- China Macroeconomic Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-2021
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- China Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: China Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: China Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: China Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: China Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: China Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: China Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-term Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: China Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: China Trade Long-term Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Key Projects Database
- Table: Key Projects Database
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- China's Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Top Ten Chinese Utilities by Market Cap (USD, mn)
- Huaneng Power International
- China Huaneng Group
- China Datang Group
- China Huadian Corporation
- China Southern Power Grid
- State Grid Corporation
- Huaneng Power International (HPI)
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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