2013-09-14 09:28:18 - Fast Market Research recommends "Colombia Food & Drink Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: As its political risk profile continues to improve, Colombia is rapidly evolving into one of Latin America's highest-potential consumer markets. From retail to soft drinks, foreign companies are paying more attention to opportunities in Colombia, underscoring the progress the country has been making. We believe the best is yet to come; as long as the political situation remains stable, both staple and discretionary consumer goods firms will remain well placed for growth. This is especially true given that Colombia has largely taken a backseat in recent years, with multinational food and drink investors primarily focused on the standout Latin American economies of Brazil and Chile.
Headline Industry Data (in local currency)
* 2013 per capita food consumption = +6.6%
year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2017 = +8.5%.
* 2013 alcoholic drink sales value = +5.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2013-2017 = +6.1%.
* 2013 soft drink sales value = +5.7% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2013-2017 = +9.6%.
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +8.3% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +10.3%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670996_colombia_food_drink_report_q4_2013.as ..
Key Company Trends
Colombian Coffee To Benefit From Central America's Coffee Rust Crisis: The International Coffee Organization (ICO) is expecting a rebound in the price of coffee for Colombian crops by the end of the year on account of the poor crop across Central America, a result of leaf rust fungus. Nevertheless, Colombian coffee crop prices fell to a three-year low in March 2013, with the ICO only expecting a rebound in the latter parts of the year owing to stockpiling by Brazilian farmers, who reportedly held out for better prices. Once the Brazilian stock has been moved, Colombian coffee will be able to fill the gap and thus demand higher prices. Bloomberg expects coffee exports from Colombia to increase by 30% y-o-y for the year.
Jeronimo Martins Opens First Colombian Stores: In March 2013, Jeronimo Martins, Portugal's largest retailer, opened its first five Colombian stores in the city of Pereira. Signalling the retailer's commitment to diversification beyond maturing European markets, it aims to have approximately 40 stores under its Ara banner by the end of 2013. Presenting ample opportunity for Jeronimo moving forward, the launch of its Latin America operations reflect a wider pattern of European retailers entering developing markets, prompted by a subdued consumer outlook and slowing domestic growth at home. The company may also look for acquisitions in order to become one of Colombia's top three retailers. Jeronimo has reportedly allocated EUR400mn for its expansion in Colombia over the next two years. However, entering the market organically, the company will not benefit from the expertise of a local player and will face competition from Chilean retailer Cencosud and Colombia-based Almacenes Exito.
Key Risks To Outlook
Risks Of Weaker Oil Revenue And Weakening Peso: We believe that the recent sell-off in commodities, additional depreciatory currency measures by monetary officials and a key technical break will see a relatively weaker Colombian peso over the coming weeks. The ongoing dollar strength associated with weaker commodity prices will weigh on Colombia's exchange rate. This will be compounded by weaker oil prices. Indeed, the oil sector is key for Colombia, being the main destination of foreign investment, as well as its main export. Thus, the prospects of weaker oil revenue will likely prompt foreign investors to adopt a more cautious stance towards Colombia, ultimately adding downside pressure to the peso, which will have an impact on the price of imported consumer goods. In addition, Colombian authorities will very likely continue to pursue measures to weaken the peso in an attempt to bolster export competitiveness.
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