2013-02-25 09:56:39 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Colombia Shipping Report Q2 2013"

BMI forecasts that the three primary ports of Colombia will all see strong growth in 2013, and over the medium term, on top of a good performance in 2012. The country is forecast to be one of the strongestperforming economies in Latin America this year, with growth of 4.3%. Throughput volumes will be supported not only by the growing dry bulk export story, in particular coal, but also container volumes will rise on the back of strong private consumption, forecast at 4.0%.

Headline Industry Data

* The Port of Cartagena will see total tonnage volume increase by 9.4% to 18.57mn tonnes in 2013.
* Container traffic at Cartagena will rise by 12.8% to 2.26mn twenty-foot equivalent units
* Volume at the

Pacific port of Buenaventura will be up by a similarly healthy 7.4% to 10.41mn tonnes, while container traffic will rise 6.4% to reach 529,444 TEUs.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541178_colombia_shipping_report_q2_2013.aspx


Key Industry Trends

Coal Powered Growth In Ports Sector: BMI believes that the mining sector, in particular coal, will continue to lead the development of Colombian dry bulk ports in 2013, with mining giant Glencore International's new facility, Puerto Nuevo, scheduled to open by July of this year. The new facility will help the Colombian government to increase the mining sector's current value from 2.4% of GDP.

Isabella Shipping Starts Tex-Col Express Service: Isabella Shipping has launched its Tex-Col Express service that will offer direct service between the US Port of Freeport and the Colombian Port of Cartagena. The full rotation of the Tex-Col Express service also comprises Turbo, Colombia and Puerto Moin in Costa Rica. The service will initially be offered twice a week and will deploy CV100 vessels. It will be upgraded to a weekly service depending upon the cargo volume.

Key Risks To Outlook

For the medium term the main risk to our positive outlook for Colombia remains the possibility of a hard landing for China, which we expect to take up the shortfall as US imports of Colombian coal decrease. A severe slowdown in the country would kill Chinese demand for raw materials such as iron ore and coal, leaving Colombia to look elsewhere for an export market. We have recently revised up our growth outlook for the Asian giant, yet we believe that the can is being kicked down the road and that a hard landing is still distinctly possible.

On the upside we believe Colombia is set to benefit from its FTA with the US. The country is already in desperate need for improved transport infrastructure to export its coal reserves, and since this FTA is likely to increase US imports it should bring with it some much-needed investment into Colombia's port infrastructure. The recent pick-up in the US economy (which has also been subject to an upwards revision by BMI to 2.3% in 2013) lends credence to this risk.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Shipping
- Business Environment
- Economic
- Political
Industry Forecast
- Port of Cartagena Throughput
- Port of Buenaventura Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Market Overview
- Colombia Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
- Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
- Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
- Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
- Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long?
- Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
- Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
- Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
- Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
- LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
- Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Hanjin Shipping
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: Colombia - Economic Activity
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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