2013-01-01 13:35:52 - Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

After surging to an expected 8.4% in 2012, we believe that real GDP growth will slow over the coming years. We are forecasting real economic expansion of 6.5% in 2013 and an average of 6.4% over the duration of our forecast period to 2016.

President Alassane Ouattara´s development plans will boost investment and improve infrastructure but will not meet ambitious government targets.

Lingering ethnic divisions and a tense security situation will dominate politics over the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

New forecasts from our Commodities team have led us to change our balance of payments forecasts, and we now expect a current account deficit of only 2.1% of GDP in 2013.

We have raised our 2012 real GDP growth estimates from 8.0% to 8.4%, and

 

 

expect slightly faster growth over the coming years.

We hold a positive view of Côte d´Ivoire´s 2032 eurobond, and expect yields on the security to trend downwards.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Offshore oil reserves could significantly boost Côte d´Ivoire´s oil production.

Downside Risks: Ethnic relations remain tense and are often exacerbated by land disputes. Against this combustible background, political forces that support former president Lauren Gbagbo have yet to be successfully integrated into the political process.

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