2014-01-23 19:32:28 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Croatia Freight Transport Report 2014"
Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing volumes across all Romania's freight transport modes, 2014 will signal further growth in line with slowly improving macroeconomic outlook.
Total trade is projected to slow its decline in real terms, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y decrease of 0.83% in 2014 following an estimated decline by 1.15% in 2013.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2014. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, with volumes plummeting in 2009-2012, and is struggling to recover.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/763963_croatia_freight_transport_report_2014 ..
BMI notes two of the Croatian state-owned transport companies - HZ Cargo and Croatia Airlines - are currently at the
different stages of privatisation.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.0%
* 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.4%
* 2014 Port of Rijeka throughput is forecast to grow by 1.9%
* 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 3.0%
* 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 0.2%
* 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at -0.8%.
Key Industry Trends
Croatia Airlines Privatisation Kicks Off- Croatia Airlines privatisation process got underway at the end of October 2013, with Croatia's Centre for Restructuring and Sales (CERP) inviting investors to express interest in buying a 49% stake in the company, with November 27 set as the deadline for potential investors. The preliminary tender will be followed by another one, with concrete offers to be made.
Croatia Replaces Head of HZ Cargo as Privatisation Nears- Croatian government appointed Danijel Krakic as a new director of HZ Cargo at the end of October 2013. At the same government meeting the president and all members of the HZ Cargo Management Board were dismissed. Krakic previously headed the railway sector at the Croatian Ministry of Transport and served as president of the HZ Cargo Supervisory Board. The government is still very much in command at HZ Cargo, as privatisation of a majority stake in the company is still not finalised.
Rijeka Making Its Bid for Regional Gateway Status- The Port of Rijeka is taking important steps to compete on a regional basis, laying claim to becoming a southern and central European gateway. The port is seeking to modernize facilities and improve hinterland freight connections.
Croatian President Woos Chinese Investment- Croatian president Ivo Josipovic said his country wanted to deepen cooperation with China and 'become another door to Europe for Chinese investors'. According to the president, the port of Rijeka provides a very good new opportunity for Chinese companies and by using Rijeka or Slovenia's port of Luka Koper they could cut down on shipping times.
New Equipment for Brajdica- Raiffeisenbank Austria (RBA) has entered into an agreement to lend EUR10.6mn to Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (AGCT), 51%-owned by Philippines-based ICTSI, to purchase equipment for the firm's new container terminal at the port of Rijeka. RBA is set to fund 45% of the new equipment's total value. The loan supports the procurement of two post-Panamax large capacity ship-to-shore cranes, six rubber-tyred gantry cranes and two rail-mounted gantry cranes, all part of the upgrade to the Brajdica container terminal.
European Commission Upbeat on Danube Strategy- Two years after its adoption, the European Commission had issued its first assessment of the implementation of the EU's strategy for the Danube region: it was described as a good start - even 'a very good start' but efforts needed to continue. The Danube strategy is the second macro-regional strategy - after the strategy for the Baltic - put in place in the EU.
GEFCO to Open Subsidiary in Zagreb- Global automotive and industrial logistics operator GEFCO plans to open a new subsidiary in Zagreb, Croatia in 2014 with the aim of establishing a point of entry for the entire EU. The subsidiary has already entered into an agreement with PSA Peugeot Citroen to provide logistics services for its new vehicles and spare parts in partnership with local companies. GEFCO, headquartered in France, said that Croatia was an attractive location for a hub.
Risks to Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have moderate risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes driven by the country's household consumption, which we expect to remain supportive of economic growth in 2014, with a projected growth by 1%. The country's real GDP is forecast to increase by 2.2% in 2014.
Both a downside and an upside risks to our forecasts come due to Croatia's high reliance on export demand. Our Country Risk team also continues to highlight the downside risks that the eurozone debt crisis poses to Croatia's economic outlook. A more pronounced slowdown in eurozone growth than we are currently forecasting would weigh considerably on Croatian growth, which might affect the country's freight operators.
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