2013-02-01 01:44:24 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: The Croatian pharmaceutical market continues to pose a challenging environment to domestic and international drugmakers. The economy is expected to contract in 2012 with weak growth returning in 2013 on the anticipation of capital inflows from the EU. The implementation of a clawback tax at the start of the year will increase pricing pressures. VAT rises and inflation suggest growth seen in 2012 will not be due to increased drug consumption. We forecast weak growth in pharmaceutical market for the next decade owing to the prevailing economic conditions in Europe. Healthcare and medical devices spending is projected to rise significantly over the next 10 years owing to a rapidly aging population. Even after EU accession next year, we
continue to believe the country will represent a modest opportunity for foreign firms.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529355_croatia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: HRK7.38bn (US$1.38bn) in 2011 to HRK7.55bn (US$1.39bn) in 2012; 2.2% in local currency and 0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q412 due to analyst intervention.
* Healthcare: HRK25.56bn (US$4.78bn) in 2011 to HRK25.34bn (US$4.64bn) in 2012; -0.9% in local currency and -2.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged since Q412.
* Medical devices: HRK1.41bn (US$264mn) in 2011 to HRK1.39bn (US$255mn) in 2012; -1.3% in local currency and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged since Q412.
Risk/Reward Rating: Croatia's RRR score remains unchanged from Q412; however, this should be seen as a positive development as the regional average score has decreased from 51.2 to 50.7. The country's Industry Risk score remains above the regional average, indicating the country's relatively favourable regulatory regime for drug approvals compared with its neighbours. However, in the categories of Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk, Croatia scores below average, highlighting the challenging market conditions in the country.
Key Trends And Developments:
* The accrual of debts by hospitals and the CIHI has become a major problem for pharmacies and wholesalers who are owed significant amounts of money by the state. Moreover, the state has taken towards centralising procurement of specific drugs and medical supplies to cut costs.
* The implementation of a clawback tax on pharmacies and producers to ensure neutral budgets has placed even more strain on pharmacies and drugmakers. Prescriptions and drug consumption will continue to rise even as unemployment climbs and the economy slow recovers.
* It is anticipated that the government will likely introduce in the short term further price controls or co-payments on expensive medicines as the cost of funding these (especially for cancers) rises significantly.
BMI Economic View: We have revised down our forecast for Croatia's economic growth in 2012 to -1.7% from -1.5% and hold to our 1.0% forecast for 2013. Weak domestic demand as a result of low confidence, fiscal austerity measures and a weak labour market will see Croatia in a recession this year. Looking to 2013, accession to the EU and concurrent funds and an improved outlook for the global economy, which will boost Croatian exports, will see a return to economic expansion.
BMI Political View: In spite of recent threats by Slovenia to delay Croatia's accession to the EU on the back of a Yugoslav era banking dispute, we see little scope for this to happen and hold to our forecast for Croatia to join the bloc in 2013. We expect Croatia to make the necessary concessions and for Slovenia's position to soften somewhat towards the end of the year.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- CroatiaPolitical SWOT
- Croatia Economic SWOT
- Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Croatia - Market Summary
- Pharmaceutical Advertising
- Intellectual Property Regime
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- OTC Regulations
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Provision
- Healthcare Expenditure
- Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO (HRK) - Equivalent to Final Consumer Prices
- Table: State Budget for Healthcare (HRKbn)
- Healthcare Reform
- Clinical Trials
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO (HRK) - Equivalent To Final Consumer Prices
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Croatia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: roatia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Croatia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Economic Outlook
- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (HRKmn)
- Medical evice Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Top-10 Medicines By Value Sales
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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