2013-03-11 12:33:37 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Croatia Retail Report Q2 2013"
The Croatia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term anxieties about the potential impact on Croatia's economic outlook of a combination of fiscal austerity measures introduced by the Kukuriku coalition government and depressed private consumption. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Croatian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis on the Croatian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Croatian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market.
Croatian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 21% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%. The country comes last in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly in the risk component. Among all retail categories, automotives will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2017, with BMI forecasting unit sales to increase by 68% during this period, from 42,591 units in 2013 to 71,570 units by 2017. Croatia is the second largest car market in the countries of former Yugoslavia in terms of market share and the number of cars per capita. The country is enjoying some success with niche electric car production. DOK-ING and Rimac Automobili have exhibited electric concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
* BMI has revised down its forecast for Croatian real GDP growth in 2013 to 0.3% from 0.8% previously, following poor data from the third quarter of 2012. Government fiscal austerity measures and the weak eurozone economy continue to weigh on household sentiment, a situation we anticipate to persist throughout 2013.
* Household spending plummeted by 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q312, the worst decline since Q110. This was driven primarily by negative developments in the labour market and a high degree of negative sentiment among consumers. The unemployment rate failed to benefit substantially from the strong tourist season - with the annual low falling to 17.3% in June 2012, higher than the 2011 low of 16.8% in July - and has ticked higher ever since, coming in at 20.4% in November.
* These dynamics are borne out in retail trade data, with negative growth for eight consecutive months, according to the latest data from the statistics bureau (as of October 2012), falling by 5.7% y-o-y; around the same level as in September (-5.9% y-o-y). BMI sees little scope for a substantial improvement in private consumption in 2013, where we forecast a 2.0% drop in real terms in this component of GDP by expenditure, translating to a 1.2 percentage point drag on real GDP growth.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Retail Sales By Key Sector, 2013f
- Economic Outlook
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Croatia Risk/Reward Ratings
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Central And Eastern Europe Regional Overview
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn, unless stated)
- Table: Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2010-2017
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (% of total)
- Market Overview
- Table: Table: Structure Of Croatia's Mass Retail Grocery Sector By Number Of Outlets, 2002-2011
- Table: Table: Structure Of Croatia's Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2002-2011
- Table: Table: Estimated Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2011 (US$mn)
- SWOT ..
- Table: Croatia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Table: Table: PC Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: AV Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Table: Mobile Communications, 2010-2017
- Table: Croatia Autos Industry SWOT
- Passenger Cars
- Table: Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
- Market Overview
- Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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