2012-10-27 18:31:30 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Czech Republic Metals Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI's Czech Metals Report for Q412 assesses the impact of the eurozone crisis on steel output in the months ahead, as well as how it will influence corporate growth and risk management strategy over the medium term. The report also examines steelmakers' responses to domestic industrial trends, particularly the automotive sector.
In the first seven months of 2012, Czech crude steel output declined by 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 3.16mn tonnes (mnt). Monthly output was volatile throughout the period, in line with market uncertainty. Output was also depressed by Evraz's decision to suspend production at its Vitkovice plant for almost one month from mid-July. ArcelorMittal announced that it would halt its modernisation of its Ostrava steelmaking facility and keep its HRC mill
idle in response to poor market conditions.
There are significant downside risks, particularly given the Czech Republic's exposure to volatile external markets, although the industry's competitiveness should work in its favour. BMI does not rule out a return to the lows seen in 2009 when output fell to 4.6mnt. Eyes will be on ArcelorMittal's plans with potential for further production cut-backs at its Czech facilities, in line with trends seen elsewhere in Europe.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479416_czech_republic_metals_report_q4_2012. ..
Nevertheless, we retain our outlook that full recovery to pre-2008 levels will not occur before 2016, with a long period of slow recovery as the problems in external markets are unlikely to abate significantly. The Czech steel industry's dependence on longs production, which represents two-thirds of Czech output, means it will mirror the flatlining European construction industry. Precluding a more dour outlook is our expectation for the global recovery to take hold towards the tail-end of the year.
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts/views:
* Output in H112 was better than BMI had expected, prompting a revision in crude steel output growth from -7.0% to -6.0%. This will still mean output falling back to around 2010 levels, wiping out the 7.8% growth recorded in 2011. BMI holds onto its forecast of 6.45mnt output in 2016.
* Downward pressure on the Czech koruna should help sustain the competitiveness of steel exports on the German market, particularly in competition with steel produced in other non-euro economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region.
* With no change in economic outlook since the previous quarter, we have retained our domestic consumption growth forecast for crude steel products at -6% to 6.5mnt in 2012. Both consumption and export figures are not, at this stage, likely to fall back to the lows of 2009.
Report Table of Contents:
- Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
Europe Metals Overview
- Table: Czech Republic's Steel Industry Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Czech Republic's Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Return To Economic Growth In 2013
- Table: Czech Republic Economic Activity
- Steel Price Forecast - Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2014
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: Global Steel Forecasts
Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update
- Iron Ore
- Table: Select Commodities Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
- Zeleziarne Podbrezova
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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